Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (62D) ]
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 20 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 56.0% | $2.3K | $137K | C | 0xca0329…dd44 | ||
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 27.0% | $741 | $41K | C | 0x0bde18…0c0e | ||
| Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 16.0% | $105 | $44K | C | 0xeb44a0…4c3d | ||
| Will Sarah Anthony win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $3 | $31K | C | 0xc1c30b…3622 | ||
| Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | $3 | $28K | C | 0x49d0b5…09df | ||
| Will Dana Nessel win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $47K | C | 0xa05f08…5af4 | ||
| Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $44K | C | 0x1586e3…84c3 | ||
| Will Kristen McDonald Rivet win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $127K | C | 0xc5452a…8160 | ||
| Will Matt Sahr win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | $200 | $106K | C | 0x91f7e7…1cbc | ||
| Will Person A win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a20b6…63bd | ||
| Will Person B win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x705342…eabd | ||
| Will Person C win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x864d54…59af | ||
| Will Person D win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9eb49d…e341 | ||
| Will Person E win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c21fa…8d16 | ||
| Will Person F win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x28971a…8601 | ||
| Will Person G win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0219aa…d56d | ||
| Will Person H win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe488b…6c76 | ||
| Will Person I win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x71add8…c5ce | ||
| Will Person J win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7a623a…db67 | ||
| Will any other person win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03da10…74c2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.
If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H7JM5BRSJ5",
"slug": "michigan-democratic-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"michigan",
"democratic-primary",
"2026",
"us-senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 20,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 605581,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}