Will the Democratic primary winner be determined for Michigan's 13th congressional district by August 4, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donavan McKinney | 2026-08-04 | 76.0% | $1.9K | $47K | C | 0x2cfbd8…17f3 | ||
| Shri Thanedar | 2026-08-04 | 15.0% | $108 | $20K | C | 0x399b69…20b9 | ||
| Shelby Campbell | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x7ab50d…f8cf | ||
| Anthony Carbonaro | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0xfb3b8e…956f | ||
| Nazmul Hassan | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0xe03235…8420 | ||
| Another person | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x35f5ca…0347 | ||
| Person A | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2b2ceb…08fc | ||
| Person B | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xde3ec8…abf1 | ||
| Person C | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7dbabb…4b1a | ||
| Person D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa7dbb2…135f | ||
| Person E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x956acd…fa61 | ||
| Person F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa11285…9832 | ||
| Person G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x94cbb7…5668 | ||
| Person H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24bdd8…9925 | ||
| Person I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdb7f06…eb38 | ||
| Person J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf8d28d…8ca4 | ||
| Person K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x23a032…e916 | ||
| Person L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1819c2…04fe | ||
| Person M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x626567…8408 | ||
| Person N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0732ed…bbd0 | ||
| Person O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7df55b…e67b | ||
| Person P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x127686…a5bc | ||
| Person Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xabf422…398f | ||
| Person R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x69c3a0…bb61 | ||
| Person S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6a7dbb…9bab | ||
| Person T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9be6dd…e11d | ||
| Person U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xed5d76…73eb | ||
| Person V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0cf4bc…08c8 | ||
| Person W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6f5c3f…c2a2 | ||
| Person X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8b19b4…9617 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x911c6b…453d | ||
| Person Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x78f962…13aa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · single authority
- democrats.org source of record venue-listed
- https://democrats.org/ from rules text · editorial
- official Democrat sources from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Thanedar MI-13 nomination bid trades at 15% under fresh selling pressure 15% · $35K 24h
- Polymarket prices Thanedar at 15% to win the MI-13 Democratic nomination, clear underdog read.
- 24h volume of $35K is 35% of all-time flow, active but below the McKinney contract's intensity.
- The inverse of McKinney's 85% leaves no probability gap, market treats this as a two-horse race.
- Resolves on primary; Thanedar held MI-13 previously, giving the contract residual attention.
- Buyers back McKinney for MI-13 on Polymarket at 85% 85% · $45K 24h
- Polymarket echoes Kalshi at 85% for McKinney's MI-13 Democratic nomination, cross-venue alignment.
- 24h volume of $45K is 31% of all-time flow; less concentrated than Kalshi but directionally consistent.
- Cross-venue consensus at identical pricing reduces arbitrage noise and confirms a genuine market view.
- Resolves on primary outcome; Thanedar contract on Polymarket sits at 15%.
- A Thanedar MI-13 Democratic nomination stays a long shot at 18% 18% · $31K 24h
- At 18%, Polymarket traders price Thanedar as a clear underdog for the MI-13 Democratic nomination.
- $31K in 24h is 47% of all-time volume, nearly half the contract's lifetime in one session.
- Volume surge mirrors Kalshi's McKinney spike; the two contracts are effectively paired.
- Resolves on official MI-13 Democratic nominee certification.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mi-13-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mi-13-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KJP3106M36",
"slug": "mi-13-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Democratic primary winner be determined for Michigan's 13th congressional district by August 4, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"michigan",
"democratic-primary",
"2026-elections",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 70827,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "democrats.org",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "democrats.org",
"url": "https://democrats.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://democrats.org/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official Democrat sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}