Will Meta release a "Mango" model in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Meta is developing a new frontier image and video-focused AI model codenamed “Mango”. You can read more about that here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta makes a new frontier AI model for image and video generation, or any model confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development, available to the general public by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A frontier AI image and video model refers to a newly released Meta model that Meta describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models for both image and video generation.
A qualifying model must be a general purpose model for image and video generation. Models which are focused on a specific aspect of image or video creation (e.g. computer vision or video segmentation) will not qualify.
Upgrades or successors to previous Meta models (e.g. Emu or SAM) will not count unless explicitly confirmed by Meta to be the model codenamed “Mango” during development or described by Meta as a frontier AI model for both image and video generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the relevant model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling free waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as being accessible to the general public.
A publicly-confirmed integration of a qualifying model into one of Meta’s primary AI buttons or portals (e.g. Instagram or Whatsapp) will qualify as a public release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- finance.yahoo.com venue-listed
- official information from Meta source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Meta "Mango" model released by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Meta "Mango" model released by March 31? | polymarket | 2026-04-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/meta-mango-model-released-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/meta-mango-model-released-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("meta-mango-model-released-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JH2R20R8Q1",
"slug": "meta-mango-model-released-by",
"question": "Will Meta release a \"Mango\" model in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"meta",
"model-release",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26583,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official information from Meta",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "finance.yahoo.com",
"url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-bets-mango-avocado-ai-224956071.html",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from Meta",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}