Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament election? [ resolves 2026-09-20 (59D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AfD | 2026-09-20 | 86.0% | $183 | $54K | A | 0x6c9bd1…cf8c | ||
| SPD | 2026-09-20 | 14.0% | $160 | $81K | A | 0x7742a0…1829 | ||
| CDU | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $44K | A | 0x92c63b…f079 | ||
| Grüne | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $71K | A | 0x012485…825e | ||
| FDP | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $76K | A | 0x024991…30d9 | ||
| Linke | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $28K | A | 0xd4bf07…0d58 | ||
| FW | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $37K | A | 0x6dd768…47d8 | ||
| BSW | 2026-09-20 | 0.1% | — | $21K | A | 0xca817f…35a9 | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x141e24…6d52 | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8485a2…b6b6 | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b3366…51e5 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x17e4b3…830c | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa0c23c…af6f | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x872c36…d03e | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdda1b1…ea74 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x612359…9272 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9dfb13…b202 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4094a6…8da3 | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaf9646…8978 | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x73a5e5…95dd | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3ff904…2c2a | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x70b20d…c748 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x43f8df…6381 | ||
| Another party | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd16d87…7512 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/ sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- laiv-mv.de venue-listed
- Landesamt für innere Verwaltung source of record from rules text · editorial
- www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N815VR9GY5",
"slug": "mecklenburg-vorpommern-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will the SPD win the most seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state parliament election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"german-politics",
"mecklenburg-vorpommern",
"2026",
"parliamentary-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 412744,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Landesamt für innere Verwaltung",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "laiv-mv.de",
"url": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Landesamt für innere Verwaltung",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}