Will the second-place candidate in the Makerfield by-election receive fewer votes than the third-place candidate? [ resolves 2026-06-18 (15D) ]
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 73.0% | $407 | $1.5K | C | 0x722349…41e4 | ||
| Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 19.0% | — | $726 | C | 0xbbcacb…de94 | ||
| Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 6.0% | $53 | $8.9K | C | 0x800146…55bb | ||
| Will James Thomas Bryer finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 1.0% | — | $462 | C | 0xc95bf7…7e2e | ||
| Will Simon Finkelstein finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.5% | — | $851 | C | 0x687734…e249 | ||
| Will John Skipworth finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.5% | $20 | $401 | C | 0xd24307…20dd | ||
| Will Maria Deery finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.2% | — | $508 | C | 0xfecf2c…9261 | ||
| Will Candidate C finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d02b3…44b2 | ||
| Will Candidate M finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2ce72…e869 | ||
| Will Candidate W finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x725e92…9703 | ||
| Will Candidate D finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1712ec…67ee | ||
| Will Candidate E finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd1e7c4…d291 | ||
| Will Candidate N finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5cc081…09ee | ||
| Will Candidate Q finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd44b57…b361 | ||
| Will Candidate R finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3b7872…7807 | ||
| Will another candidate finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2fc39a…b78a | ||
| Will Candidate F finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcbd8a0…eb9d | ||
| Will Candidate G finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x503a45…9f7c | ||
| Will Candidate K finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2b0cda…9569 | ||
| Will Candidate L finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc027ea…081d | ||
| Will Candidate S finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf5c23…b531 | ||
| Will Candidate U finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf49f1f…5584 | ||
| Will Candidate V finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc186dc…5b15 | ||
| Will Candidate X finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x897768…030d | ||
| Will Candidate B finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0cb703…97bc | ||
| Will Candidate H finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf95684…e974 | ||
| Will Candidate I finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e3d83…930a | ||
| Will Candidate J finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c9625…9b9c | ||
| Will Candidate O finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb84624…c7cf | ||
| Will Candidate P finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa4e626…74e2 | ||
| Will Candidate T finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdb5255…34fe | ||
| Will Candidate Y finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x36af2c…2dcb | ||
| Will Candidate Z finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election | 2026-06-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7932d7…57f6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second most valid votes in the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/makerfield-by-election-2nd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/makerfield-by-election-2nd-place.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("makerfield-by-election-2nd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-51SNW8WJF1",
"slug": "makerfield-by-election-2nd-place",
"question": "Will the second-place candidate in the Makerfield by-election receive fewer votes than the third-place candidate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"uk-politics",
"makerfield",
"2026",
"electoral-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13284,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.wigan.gov.uk/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}