Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [B] reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 85.0% | — | $8.0K | B | 0x81d603…fc1f | ||
| ≤ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | — | $6.1K | B | 0x2454c4…9c77 | ||
| Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair… | 2026-12-31 | 2.1% | — | $26K | B | 0xbb676d…f62d | ||
| ≤ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $36K | B | 0x6d08ed…8029 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | — | $33K | B | 0x7ec88c…9433 | ||
| ≤ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $16K | B | 0xd8aa92…b4b4 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $11K | B | 0xa588a3…f229 | ||
| ≤ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $12K | B | 0x33c890…428c | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $11K | B | 0x451f95…85f9 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Federal Reserve (consensus fallback) | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-783J2KBHQ0",
"slug": "major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948",
"question": "Will Rick Rieder be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-chair",
"monetary-policy",
"interest-rates",
"fed-leadership",
"economic-forecasting"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 158715,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 64,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve (consensus fallback)",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}