Will Maduro be found guilty of all counts? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (526D) ]
Maduro guilty of all counts?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maduro guilty of all counts | 2027-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $126K | A | 0x1f9767…607c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl sources (2) · single authority
- justice.gov source of record venue-listed
- official information from the U.S. court system from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/maduro-guilty-of-all-counts/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/maduro-guilty-of-all-counts |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("maduro-guilty-of-all-counts") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MKM4TBZ239",
"slug": "maduro-guilty-of-all-counts",
"question": "Will Maduro be found guilty of all counts?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"venezuela",
"criminal-justice",
"international-law",
"2027",
"maduro"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 125838,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "justice.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "justice.gov",
"url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from the U.S. court system",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}