Will François Lecornu be out as French Prime Minister? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026) [ resolves 2025-11 – 2026-12 ]
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 2025-11-01 | 100.0% | — | $159K | C | 0xb84317…0d7d | ||
| November 30 | 2025-12-01 | 1.0% | — | $5.2K | C | 0x77d86f…11e8 | ||
| December 31 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $129K | C | 0x0ec60f…f406 | ||
| June 30, 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $27K | C | 0x3f392b…279b | ||
| July 31, 2026 | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | $960 | C | 0xa42827…29d4 | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | — | $9.3K | C | 0x500848…5cc8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5YB5N8PF45",
"slug": "lecornu-out-as-french-pm-by-381",
"question": "Will François Lecornu be out as French Prime Minister? (multi-deadline series, 2025-2026)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"france",
"prime-minister",
"executive-turnover",
"2026",
"government-stability"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 330312,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 55,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}