Will a lead bank be designated for Anthropic's IPO? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (526D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 19 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2027-12-31 | 70.0% | — | $6.8K | C | 0x27dcf3…fbd8 | ||
| Morgan Stanley | 2027-12-31 | 67.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xdee268…7df4 | ||
| Bank of America | 2027-12-31 | 3.1% | — | $4.0K | C | 0xbfafbe…296c | ||
| Barclays | 2027-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $2.5K | C | 0x5c6547…48f9 | ||
| JPMorgan Chase | 2027-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $6.1K | C | 0x45db9d…8149 | ||
| Citigroup | 2027-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.4K | C | 0x2e2760…777e | ||
| UBS | 2027-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $3.2K | C | 0xfbf488…5421 | ||
| Deutsche Bank | 2027-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $4.2K | C | 0x0327db…aa5b | ||
| Wells Fargo | 2027-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $2.7K | C | 0x029881…4f93 | ||
| Bank A | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x73732e…4198 | ||
| Bank B | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x791700…a200 | ||
| Bank C | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x317de0…4ccf | ||
| Bank D | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4aeb32…3941 | ||
| Bank E | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5ab3e8…06b8 | ||
| Bank F | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcfbf8f…82ba | ||
| Bank G | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24d208…ea1e | ||
| Bank H | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc65d8…a77d | ||
| Bank I | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc875ae…48fc | ||
| Another Bank | 2027-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x97d64b…859f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of Anthropic.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or Anthropic completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of Anthropic’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from Anthropic. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official disclosures from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-278HZ7N8S1",
"slug": "lead-bank-in-anthropics-ipo",
"question": "Will a lead bank be designated for Anthropic's IPO?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"business",
"ipo-underwriting",
"anthropic",
"investment-banking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 19,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44415,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official disclosures from Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "A consensus of credible reporting may also be used",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}