Will a law banning sports prediction markets be enacted by 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
polymarket: [C] objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 32.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x3ef184…35b4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (3)
- US federal government from rules text · editorial
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4Q9NHP3X91",
"slug": "law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2026",
"question": "Will a law banning sports prediction markets be enacted by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"sports-betting-regulation",
"us-legislation",
"prediction-markets",
"congress",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16158,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US federal government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}