Will the Latvian parliamentary election result in a single party winning an outright majority by 2026? [ resolves 2026-10-03 (72D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) | 2026-10-03 | 39.4% | $212 | $24K | A | 0x0eac20…9e53 | ||
| Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) | 2026-10-03 | 34.0% | $151 | $19K | A | 0xaca9f7…1f77 | ||
| Progresīvie (PRO) | 2026-10-03 | 12.0% | $243 | $28K | A | 0x5039c1…ecba | ||
| Suverēnā Vara (SV) | 2026-10-03 | 6.1% | $208 | $13K | A | 0x343925…be57 | ||
| Jaunā Vienotība (JV) | 2026-10-03 | 6.0% | $91 | $11K | A | 0x48ec35…3e02 | ||
| Nacionālā Apvienība (NA) | 2026-10-03 | 2.2% | $91 | $7.0K | A | 0x212c63…37fc | ||
| Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) | 2026-10-03 | 0.8% | $91 | $52K | A | 0x09d1f8…26d3 | ||
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) | 2026-10-03 | 0.3% | $80 | $3.3K | A | 0xcb048c…6c48 | ||
| Stabilitātei! (ST!) | 2026-10-03 | 0.2% | $80 | $2.5K | A | 0x192132…1d07 | ||
| Another party | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe4a28…2605 | ||
| Party A | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeb9e7d…a655 | ||
| Party B | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8085c5…ebe5 | ||
| Party C | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xba145b…97c0 | ||
| Party D | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18e871…ee70 | ||
| Party E | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaf7235…32b1 | ||
| Party F | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6291f6…454e | ||
| Party G | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe37cdc…709c | ||
| Party H | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x881139…51f0 | ||
| Party I | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7bdfa4…18b3 | ||
| Party J | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc75ed…4505 | ||
| Party K | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa6a32f…98b2 | ||
| Party L | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x777913…9992 | ||
| Party M | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5b8835…160c | ||
| Party N | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x22fcdd…4ce1 | ||
| Party O | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc07c60…02dc | ||
| Party P | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x533548…63ef | ||
| Party Q | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5edaf2…cbc8 | ||
| Party R | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb15ef7…ad23 | ||
| Party S | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdab25d…a182 | ||
| Party T | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd46b80…c8ed | ||
| Party U | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35bf79…cf7e | ||
| Party V | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaffc3f…f910 | ||
| Party W | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04330e…9ee5 | ||
| Party X | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0a50ef…f7ec | ||
| Party Y | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8dda4e…d168 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-10-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04889b…b54c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Latvia on October 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Latvian Parliament (Saeima) in the next Latvian Parliamentary election.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties/coalitions for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Latvian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves and does not contest this election, the corresponding market will resolve based on the number of seats won by the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Latvian government, specifically the Latvian Central Election Commission (https://www.cvk.lv/lv).
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.cvk.lv/lv sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- cvk.lv venue-listed
- Latvian Central Election Commission source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/latvian-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("latvian-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TPH1FR3YZ0",
"slug": "latvian-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Latvian parliamentary election result in a single party winning an outright majority by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"latvia",
"parliamentary-elections",
"2026",
"seat-plurality"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 158895,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.cvk.lv/lv",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Latvian Central Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "cvk.lv",
"url": "https://www.cvk.lv/lv",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Latvian Central Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}