Which company will have the largest IPO by market capitalization in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 74 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | 2026-12-31 | 86.0% | $142 | $534K | B | 0x858b98…8c5a | ||
| Anthropic | 2026-12-31 | 13.7% | $25 | $660K | B | 0xe96dba…ad09 | ||
| OpenAI | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $72 | $444K | B | 0xf6210b…6762 | ||
| ByteDance | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $166K | B | 0x27392e…ca1a | ||
| Stripe | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $91K | B | 0xb8d988…8973 | ||
| Databricks | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $578K | B | 0x93cc65…6fb1 | ||
| SHEIN | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $562K | B | 0x609798…e1f1 | ||
| Waymo | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $309K | B | 0xa8b155…3e1a | ||
| Revolut | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $627K | B | 0x719b10…dec0 | ||
| Discord | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $170K | B | 0x0b755f…3637 | ||
| Perplexity AI | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $103K | B | 0xa70079…30cc | ||
| Kraken | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $650K | B | 0xe6a08a…49aa | ||
| XAI | 2026-12-31 | — | — | — | B | 0x3c70ee…ecfc | ||
| Other company | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc9d97d…6bff | ||
| Placeholder A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x22b367…0ac2 | ||
| Placeholder B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x53515f…8fef | ||
| Placeholder C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6c8d1e…7715 | ||
| Placeholder D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xebc512…8295 | ||
| Placeholder E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb54542…9d41 | ||
| Placeholder F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6452c2…89e2 | ||
| Placeholder G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x45200b…a48c | ||
| Placeholder H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0b9d29…11cf | ||
| Placeholder I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb053cb…55db | ||
| Placeholder J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x174946…7783 | ||
| Placeholder K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf1ecbd…74ea | ||
| Placeholder L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x518337…1290 | ||
| Placeholder M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb2141…634a | ||
| Placeholder N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa96f0c…b9ea | ||
| Placeholder O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5ae514…3899 | ||
| Placeholder P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfe143a…f9ee | ||
| Placeholder Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x38ae92…2972 | ||
| Placeholder R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x862138…e680 | ||
| Placeholder S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7eb7b6…5507 | ||
| Placeholder T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7d3b23…4a25 | ||
| Placeholder U | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x370fd6…0124 | ||
| Placeholder V | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x58427a…5670 | ||
| Placeholder W | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6e436b…c54a | ||
| Placeholder X | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x47f4af…95c8 | ||
| Placeholder Y | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdb0c26…0bb5 | ||
| Placeholder Z | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc6912b…5e27 | ||
| Placeholder AA | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd8e3f4…88ee | ||
| Placeholder AB | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x227f9b…27bd | ||
| Placeholder AC | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf0711f…f66a | ||
| Placeholder AD | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3a33d2…3ab7 | ||
| Placeholder AE | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc6101b…e969 | ||
| Placeholder AF | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8e2a76…4299 | ||
| Placeholder AG | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5cd4e1…36dd | ||
| Placeholder AH | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5f0a19…4896 | ||
| Placeholder AI | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x425acc…1a5c | ||
| Placeholder AJ | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x51b0fa…7a07 | ||
| Placeholder AK | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa2bece…0536 | ||
| Placeholder AL | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x199e57…9986 | ||
| Placeholder AM | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1de686…9500 | ||
| Placeholder AN | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe51c41…4b23 | ||
| Placeholder AO | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5c6250…64ef | ||
| Placeholder AP | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd420a0…dc05 | ||
| Placeholder AQ | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc1006c…76ba | ||
| Placeholder AR | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x00d5b6…cec4 | ||
| Placeholder AS | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7b84c3…0724 | ||
| Placeholder AT | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4d9aee…81b7 | ||
| Placeholder AU | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8ecf66…265d | ||
| Placeholder AV | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x424f90…00c0 | ||
| Placeholder AW | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x75a869…63c3 | ||
| Placeholder AX | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe73018…38c4 | ||
| Placeholder AY | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2035c4…aedf | ||
| Placeholder AZ | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc55216…c3fc | ||
| Placeholder BA | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0cbd01…7090 | ||
| Placeholder BB | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa03441…51b0 | ||
| Placeholder BC | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde765f…3e95 | ||
| Placeholder BD | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf440ce…f715 | ||
| Placeholder BE | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x92bda1…277b | ||
| Placeholder BF | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa3b328…d64d | ||
| Placeholder BG | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe28d6b…b934 | ||
| Placeholder BH | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x793c96…272b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/ sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NRC039X6K7",
"slug": "largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287",
"question": "Which company will have the largest IPO by market capitalization in 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"ipo-2026",
"market-cap",
"public-markets",
"business",
"finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 74,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 4894734,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}