Will the largest IPO by market capitalization occur in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 74 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 84.0% | $3.7K | $272K | A | 0x858b98…8c5a | ||
| Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 11.1% | $6.7K | $394K | A | 0xe96dba…ad09 | ||
| Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 2.8% | $3.9K | $367K | A | 0xf6210b…6762 | ||
| Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $6.0K | $127K | A | 0x0b755f…3637 | ||
| Will ByteDance have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $9 | $121K | A | 0x27392e…ca1a | ||
| Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $9 | $76K | A | 0xb8d988…8973 | ||
| Will Kraken have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $4.3K | $407K | A | 0xe6a08a…49aa | ||
| Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $99K | A | 0x609798…e1f1 | ||
| Will Waymo have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $9 | $78K | A | 0xa8b155…3e1a | ||
| Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $9 | $86K | A | 0x719b10…dec0 | ||
| Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $86K | A | 0xa70079…30cc | ||
| Will Databricks have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $9 | $139K | A | 0x93cc65…6fb1 | ||
| Will Placeholder K have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf1ecbd…74ea | ||
| Will Placeholder O have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5ae514…3899 | ||
| Will Placeholder Q have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x38ae92…2972 | ||
| Will Placeholder S have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7eb7b6…5507 | ||
| Will Placeholder AA have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd8e3f4…88ee | ||
| Will Placeholder AE have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc6101b…e969 | ||
| Will Placeholder AG have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5cd4e1…36dd | ||
| Will Placeholder AN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe51c41…4b23 | ||
| Will Placeholder AQ have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc1006c…76ba | ||
| Will Placeholder AT have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d9aee…81b7 | ||
| Will Placeholder AV have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x424f90…00c0 | ||
| Will Placeholder AW have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x75a869…63c3 | ||
| Will Placeholder BC have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xde765f…3e95 | ||
| Will Placeholder BG have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe28d6b…b934 | ||
| Will Placeholder B have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x53515f…8fef | ||
| Will Placeholder E have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb54542…9d41 | ||
| Will Other company have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9d97d…6bff | ||
| Will Placeholder A have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x22b367…0ac2 | ||
| Will Placeholder D have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xebc512…8295 | ||
| Will Placeholder G have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x45200b…a48c | ||
| Will Placeholder I have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb053cb…55db | ||
| Will Placeholder C have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6c8d1e…7715 | ||
| Will Placeholder F have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6452c2…89e2 | ||
| Will xAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | — | — | — | A | 0x3c70ee…ecfc | ||
| Will Placeholder H have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0b9d29…11cf | ||
| Will Placeholder J have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x174946…7783 | ||
| Will Placeholder P have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe143a…f9ee | ||
| Will Placeholder R have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x862138…e680 | ||
| Will Placeholder Z have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc6912b…5e27 | ||
| Will Placeholder AB have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x227f9b…27bd | ||
| Will Placeholder AD have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3a33d2…3ab7 | ||
| Will Placeholder AF have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8e2a76…4299 | ||
| Will Placeholder AH have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5f0a19…4896 | ||
| Will Placeholder AJ have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x51b0fa…7a07 | ||
| Will Placeholder AK have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa2bece…0536 | ||
| Will Placeholder AP have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd420a0…dc05 | ||
| Will Placeholder AS have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b84c3…0724 | ||
| Will Placeholder AY have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2035c4…aedf | ||
| Will Placeholder BD have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf440ce…f715 | ||
| Will Placeholder BH have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x793c96…272b | ||
| Will Placeholder L have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x518337…1290 | ||
| Will Placeholder M have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdb2141…634a | ||
| Will Placeholder T have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7d3b23…4a25 | ||
| Will Placeholder U have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x370fd6…0124 | ||
| Will Placeholder W have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6e436b…c54a | ||
| Will Placeholder Y have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdb0c26…0bb5 | ||
| Will Placeholder AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x425acc…1a5c | ||
| Will Placeholder AL have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x199e57…9986 | ||
| Will Placeholder AR have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x00d5b6…cec4 | ||
| Will Placeholder AU have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8ecf66…265d | ||
| Will Placeholder AZ have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc55216…c3fc | ||
| Will Placeholder BB have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa03441…51b0 | ||
| Will Placeholder BE have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x92bda1…277b | ||
| Will Placeholder BF have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa3b328…d64d | ||
| Will Placeholder N have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa96f0c…b9ea | ||
| Will Placeholder V have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x58427a…5670 | ||
| Will Placeholder X have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x47f4af…95c8 | ||
| Will Placeholder AC have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf0711f…f66a | ||
| Will Placeholder AM have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1de686…9500 | ||
| Will Placeholder AO have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5c6250…64ef | ||
| Will Placeholder AX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe73018…38c4 | ||
| Will Placeholder BA have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0cbd01…7090 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Federal Reserve | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NRC039X6K7",
"slug": "largest-ipo-by-market-cap-in-2026-287",
"question": "Will the largest IPO by market capitalization occur in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"tech-ipo-2026",
"market-cap-superlative",
"public-markets",
"technology-listings",
"us-equities"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 74,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2251947,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}