Will Lai Ching-te be out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.8% | $415 | $105K | C | 0x68e47e…fb5b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lai Ching-te ceases to be President of Taiwan for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Lai Ching-te's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
- official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Traders write off Lai Ching-te removal through year-end 4% · $34K 24h
- Polymarket prices 4%, market firmly discounts presidential removal or departure as a 2026 scenario.
- $34K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume; fresh attention on a tail-risk contract with six months remaining.
- Cross-strait tension headlines likely driving curiosity inflows; 4% reflects institutional consensus on Taiwan political stability.
- Resolves December 31, 2026, long runway for catalyst-driven repricing if PRC pressure escalates.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MH9KTJJZ41",
"slug": "lai-ching-te-out-as-president-of-taiwan-in-2026",
"question": "Will Lai Ching-te be out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"taiwan-politics",
"executive-succession",
"geopolitics",
"2026",
"political-removal",
"asia-pacific"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 105266,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 37,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Lai Ching-te and the government of Taiwan",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}