Will WTI crude oil price reach below a specified level by the end of this year? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (168D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $50 | 2027-01-07 | 8.0% | $4 | $1.6K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T50 | ||
| ≤ $55 | 2027-01-07 | 13.0% | $4 | $3.0K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T55 | ||
| ≤ $56 | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | — | $32 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T56 | ||
| ≤ $57 | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | — | $23 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T57 | ||
| ≤ $58 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $0 | $87 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T58 | ||
| ≤ $59 | 2027-01-07 | 24.0% | — | $172 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T59 | ||
| ≤ $60 | 2027-01-07 | 25.0% | $128 | $8.2K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T60 | ||
| ≤ $61 | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | $43 | $83 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T61 | ||
| ≤ $62 | 2027-01-07 | 24.0% | $154 | $179 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T62 | ||
| ≤ $63 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | $0 | $47 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T63 | ||
| ≤ $64 | 2027-01-07 | 38.0% | $6 | $176 | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T64 | ||
| ≤ $65 | 2027-01-07 | 43.0% | $979 | $17K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T65 | ||
| ≤ $70 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $96K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T70 | ||
| ≤ $75 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $72K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T75 | ||
| ≤ $80 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $142K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T80 | ||
| ≤ $85 | 2027-01-07 | 98.0% | — | $152K | A | KXWTIMIN-26D…T85 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ICE | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ICE reports that the minimum price of oil (as defined exclusively by the set of WTI front-month settle prices) is below $80 between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ICE" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- ICE source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $70 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 99% |
| YES | Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-23 | 99% |
| YES | Will the minimum WTI front month settle price reach $80 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-06-17 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- WTI $70 floor by year-end defended at near-certainty 99% · $21K 24h
- Kalshi at 99%, market treats a sub-$70 WTI close at any point through year-end as essentially impossible.
- $21K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume; modest but consistent with institutional hedgers locking in cheap premium.
- Current WTI spot well above $70; contract serves as tail-risk insurance, not a directional call.
- Year-end resolution; 99% price implies sellers are harvesting near-riskless yield on residual counterparties.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwtimin-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwtimin-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwtimin-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-7TJGC08326",
"slug": "kxwtimin-26dec31",
"question": "Will WTI crude oil price reach below a specified level by the end of this year?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"oil-prices",
"wti-crude",
"commodities",
"energy-markets",
"price-forecast"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 493403,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ICE",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theice.com/index",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "ICE",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ICE",
"url": "https://www.theice.com/index",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}