Will someone visit the White House in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Bezos | 2027-01-01 | 99.8% | — | $2.5K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JBEZ | ||
| Joe Rogan | 2027-01-01 | 99.5% | — | $32K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JROG | ||
| Dario Amodei | 2027-01-01 | 99.1% | — | $6.6K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-DAMO | ||
| Mark Zuckerberg | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $3.4K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-MZUC | ||
| Sam Altman | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $12K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-SAMA | ||
| Joseph Aoun | 2027-01-01 | 99.0% | — | $8.6K | B | KXWHVISIT-27…AOU | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2027-01-01 | 97.3% | — | $2.1K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JHUA | ||
| Xi Jinping | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | — | $29K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-XJIN | ||
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 2027-01-01 | 80.0% | — | $4 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-AESP | ||
| Mark Carney | 2027-01-01 | 71.0% | — | $3.4K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-MCAR | ||
| Elon Musk | 2027-01-01 | 69.0% | — | $4.6K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-EMUS | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2027-01-01 | 55.0% | $33 | $1.6K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-VZEL | ||
| Abdel Fattah al-Sisi | 2027-01-01 | 55.0% | — | $2.3K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-AALS | ||
| Hakeem Jeffries | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | — | $2.7K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-HJEF | ||
| Claudia Sheinbaum | 2027-01-01 | 35.0% | — | $1.4K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-CSHE | ||
| John Ternus | 2027-01-01 | 35.0% | — | $4.6K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JTER | ||
| Abiy Ahmed | 2027-01-01 | 21.0% | — | $1.3K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-AAHM | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | — | $876 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-GNEW | ||
| Jaxson Dart | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $19 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JDAR | ||
| Bill Maher | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $336 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-BMAH | ||
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2027-01-01 | 16.0% | $0 | $398 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-CRON | ||
| Eric Adams | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $366 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-EADA | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $440 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-VPUT | ||
| Lionel Messi | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $7 | B | KXWHVISIT-27…MES | ||
| Bola Ahmed Tinubu | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $28 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-BTIN | ||
| Pope Leo XIV | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $440 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-PLEO | ||
| Reza Pahlavi | 2027-01-01 | 8.4% | — | $1.2K | B | KXWHVISIT-27-RPAH | ||
| Barack Obama | 2027-01-01 | 8.2% | — | $127 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-OBAM | ||
| Jerome Powell | 2027-01-01 | 7.7% | — | $71 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JPOW | ||
| Hun Manet | 2027-01-01 | 7.1% | — | $44 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-HMAN | ||
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 2027-01-01 | 4.4% | — | $156 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-MTG | ||
| Anutin Charnvirakul | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $159 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-ACHA | ||
| Joe Biden | 2027-01-01 | 3.1% | — | $44 | B | KXWHVISIT-27-JBID |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Eric Adams visits the White House after Dec 9, 2025 and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This means a physical visit to any of: The Executive Residence, the West Wing, the East Wing, the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, and all gardens, lawns, and outdoor spaces within the secured perimeter of the White House, including the Rose Garden and the South Lawn. The announcement must occur after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 and so must the actual visit.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (15) · single authority
- ABC venue-listed
- AP venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Bloomberg venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- Office of the Presidency source of record venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- White House venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Joseph Aoun visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 99% |
| YES | Will Mark Zuckerberg visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-15 | 99% |
| YES | Will Sam Altman visit the White House before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-06-08 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwhvisit-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwhvisit-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwhvisit-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MS6NQYGFQ9",
"slug": "kxwhvisit-27",
"question": "Will someone visit the White House in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"white-house-visits",
"us-politics",
"2027-resolution",
"political-figures",
"domestic-events"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 122804,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Office of the Presidency",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "AP",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Office of the Presidency",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/executive-office-of-the-president/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "White House",
"url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}