Will Waymo operate in at least one new city or region by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (219D) ]
Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Detroit, MI before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Las Vegas, NV before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 79.0% | — | $1.1K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…LAS | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in San Diego, CA before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 72.0% | — | $751 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAN | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Denver, CO before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 61.0% | — | $786 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…DEN | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Tampa, FL before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 54.0% | $1 | $806 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…TAM | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Detroit, MI before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 50.0% | $528 | $1.1K | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…DET | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in London, UK before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 34.0% | $0 | $143 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…LON | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Portland, OR before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 31.0% | $4 | $747 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…POR | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Sacramento, CA before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 30.0% | — | $511 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SAC | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 29.0% | $1 | $721 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…-DC | ||
| Will Waymo operate ride-hailing in Seattle, WA before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-08 | 21.0% | $3 | $326 | C | KXWAYMOCITY-…SEA |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
"Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas. Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC
Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits
Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC
Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC
Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Examples that would resolve to No:
Waymo only operates employee shuttles or closed testing in Washington, DC
Waymo only has an office or maintenance facility in Washington, DC
All Waymo vehicles in Washington, DC have safety drivers
Waymo is testing but not offering paid public rides
Service requires being on a waitlist or having a special code
Waymo announces plans to launch but hasn't started service by Jan 1, 2027
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxwaymocity-26dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxwaymocity-26dec.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxwaymocity-26dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GV7S80KSY9",
"slug": "kxwaymocity-26dec",
"question": "Will Waymo operate in at least one new city or region by the end of 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"waymo",
"autonomous-vehicles",
"ride-hailing",
"geographic-expansion",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6985,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://waymo.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}