Will the Senate vote on the next budget reconciliation bill? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 7 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 90.0% | $453 | $3.1K | A | KXVOTERECNCS…MCC | ||
| Will Thom Tillis vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 85.0% | $2.8K | $12K | A | KXVOTERECNCS…TIL | ||
| Will Susan Collins vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 81.0% | $297 | $5.8K | A | KXVOTERECNCS…COL | ||
| Will Bill Cassidy vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 76.0% | — | $1.1K | A | KXVOTERECNCS…CAS | ||
| Will Rand Paul vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 42.0% | $48 | $2.0K | A | KXVOTERECNCS…PAU | ||
| Will John Fetterman vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $396 | A | KXVOTERECNCS…FET | ||
| Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next budget reconciliation bill | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $399 | A | KXVOTERECNCS…MUR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Lisa Murkowski votes for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The vote must be the first final vote on the bill, not a motion to proceed or motion to invoke cloture, unless otherwise specified. This must be a vote in the relevant full chamber, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by the member to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other Congressional source.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoterecncs-may26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoterecncs-may26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoterecncs-may26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-4XG0BNLMN3",
"slug": "kxvoterecncs-may26",
"question": "Will the Senate vote on the next budget reconciliation bill?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"budget-reconciliation",
"legislative-voting",
"2027",
"senate-procedure"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 7,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 25007,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://congress.gov",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}