Will Ed Gallrein receive between 54% and 57% of the popular vote in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary? [ resolves 2027-05-19 (350D) ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 39% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | $3 | $873 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-19 | ||
| 42% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $19 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-40 | ||
| 45% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $34 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-43 | ||
| 48% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $33 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-46 | ||
| 51% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $28 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-49 | ||
| 54% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $61 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-52 | ||
| 57% | 2027-05-19 | 97.0% | $16 | $5.1K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-55 | ||
| 60% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $31 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-58 | ||
| ≥ 60% | 2027-05-19 | 1.0% | — | $36 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ed Gallrein in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary is 0% to 38.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteprimary-ky4r26egalegal/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteprimary-ky4r26egalegal.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteprimary-ky4r26egalegal") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-06J5GZHCP8",
"slug": "kxvoteprimary-ky4r26egalegal",
"question": "Will Ed Gallrein receive between 54% and 57% of the popular vote in the 2026 Kentucky 4th Congressional District Republican primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"ky-04-republican-primary",
"2026-us-elections",
"congressional-race",
"vote-share-prediction",
"ed-gallrein"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6180,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}