Will Steve Hilton receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? [ resolved 2026-07-11 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 4% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $326 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…L-2 | ||
| 8% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $23 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…L-6 | ||
| 12% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $28 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-10 | ||
| 16% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $70 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-14 | ||
| 20% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $477 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-18 | ||
| 24% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | $2 | $552 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-22 | ||
| 28% | 2026-07-11 | 100.0% | $14K | $68K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-26 | ||
| 32% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $1.7K | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-30 | ||
| ≥ 32% | 2026-07-11 | 0.0% | — | $264 | C | KXVOTEPRIMAR…-66 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | official government website of <geography> | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Steve Hilton in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary is 0% to 3.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur (e.g., ranked choice voting), the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond the market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "official government website of <geography>" sources (1)
- official government website of <geography> venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 0% and 4% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 4% and 8% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 8% and 12% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 12% and 16% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 16% and 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| YES | Will Steve Hilton receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 100% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive between 28% and 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
| NO | Will Steve Hilton receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary? | kalshi | 2026-07-11 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteprimary-26jun02shil/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteprimary-26jun02shil |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteprimary-26jun02shil") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-82FXFQ2GW9",
"slug": "kxvoteprimary-26jun02shil",
"question": "Will Steve Hilton receive between 24% and 28% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"california-governor-2026",
"primary-election",
"vote-share-band",
"steve-hilton",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 71630,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "official government website of " ,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official government website of " ,
"url": "https://www.usa.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}