Senate votes on crypto market structure bill, May 16, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 49.0% | $50 | $4.0K | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T50 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | — | $342 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T55 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 44.0% | — | $473 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T58 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 26.0% | — | $1.1K | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T60 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $370 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T62 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $141 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T64 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $53 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T66 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $27 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T68 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of Senate voting Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) before Jan 1, 2027 is above 50, then the market resolves to Yes.
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan
The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber (that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote). If no vote has occurred before the specified date, then any market not including "zero" within its count (e.g. "Between 50 and 64") resolves to No, and any market including "zero" (e.g. "Below 50") resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the bill is passed, any market including "100" for the Senate and "435" for the House of Representatives (e.g. "Between 65 and 100" or "Between 300 and 435") will resolve to Yes, and any market not including "100" or "435", respectively, (e.g. "Below 65") resolves to No.
Once the market has expired, a request by any Member of Congress to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other official source.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Crypto market structure bill falls short of 50 Senate votes, odds stay low Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder implies Senate yea votes on a crypto market structure bill fall below 50: only 6% above 50 votes, 7% above 55, 7% above 60.
- The near-flat probability across the 50-68 vote range reflects deep uncertainty about whether any bill passes, not a scenario where it clears comfortably.
- Democrats winning both chambers, as reported, is consistent with the ladder's pricing of sub-50 votes, since the incoming Democratic majority is seen as less favorable to the crypto industry's legislative agenda.
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 4%, corroborating the ladder's dim view of near-term crypto legislation.
- Senate crypto bill vote count priced well below 50 members Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes for a crypto market structure bill prices the market-implied count well below 50: only 6% chance of reaching 50 votes.
- The Senate bill's collapse is fully consistent with the ladder's distribution, which shows peak probability mass in the 58-62 range implying the bill fell short of cloture.
- A related Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) prices at 8%, reinforcing the bleak near-term outlook.
- The Kalshi ladder resolves based on the final recorded Senate vote count; a procedural cloture vote total would be the relevant tally.
- Senate Yea votes on crypto bill priced well below 50 Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes prices 50 votes at just 10% and every higher strike at 8% or below, fully consistent with the 49-50 failure.
- The 49-50 procedural vote confirms the ladder's distribution: the market was pricing a sub-50 outcome as the modal scenario before the vote.
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act becoming law by 2026 sits at 5%, suggesting markets see little chance of a reattempt clearing both chambers this year.
- The Kalshi contract resolves on the recorded Senate vote count; the Polymarket signing-into-law contract resolves via UMA oracle and requires full legislative passage.
- Crypto structure bill Senate vote count sits near 50% 54% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 54% chance the DeFi crypto market structure bill clears the relevant Senate Yea threshold.
- 38% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, the market's heaviest single day of engagement.
- Floor scheduling news or a whip count update on the crypto bill likely drove traders to take fresh positions.
- Resolution tied to the Senate floor vote on the crypto market structure legislation.
- Senate yea votes on crypto bill priced right at the 60-vote line Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 50% above 60 yea votes and only 25% above 62, putting the market-implied vote count right on the cloture knife-edge.
- Final text release with ethics provisions is consistent with last-minute vote-gathering; the market has not broken clearly above the 60-vote threshold.
- The 64% probability above 55 votes versus 50% above 60 shows the market expects votes in the high 50s to low 60s as the modal outcome.
- Polymarket law-by-2026 contract (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) at 29% reflects that clearing cloture still leaves House passage and presidential signature as hurdles.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteclarity-26may16") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
"slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
"question": "Senate votes on crypto market structure bill, May 16, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"legislation",
"vote-count",
"clarity-act",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6555,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Congress.gov",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}