Senate votes on crypto market structure bill, May 16, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 49.0% | $50 | $4.0K | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T50 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 50.0% | — | $342 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T55 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 44.0% | — | $473 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T58 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 26.0% | — | $1.1K | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T60 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | — | $370 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T62 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $141 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T64 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $53 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T66 | ||
| How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as… | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $27 | B | KXVOTECLARIT…T68 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Library of Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the number of Senate voting Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) before Jan 1, 2027 is above 50, then the market resolves to Yes.
KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan
The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber (that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote). If no vote has occurred before the specified date, then any market not including "zero" within its count (e.g. "Between 50 and 64") resolves to No, and any market including "zero" (e.g. "Below 50") resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the bill is passed, any market including "100" for the Senate and "435" for the House of Representatives (e.g. "Between 65 and 100" or "Between 300 and 435") will resolve to Yes, and any market not including "100" or "435", respectively, (e.g. "Below 65") resolves to No.
Once the market has expired, a request by any Member of Congress to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other official source.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Library of Congress" sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Senate Yea votes on crypto bill priced well below 50 Kalshi ladder
- The Kalshi ladder on Senate Yea votes prices 50 votes at just 10% and every higher strike at 8% or below, fully consistent with the 49-50 failure.
- The 49-50 procedural vote confirms the ladder's distribution: the market was pricing a sub-50 outcome as the modal scenario before the vote.
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act becoming law by 2026 sits at 5%, suggesting markets see little chance of a reattempt clearing both chambers this year.
- The Kalshi contract resolves on the recorded Senate vote count; the Polymarket signing-into-law contract resolves via UMA oracle and requires full legislative passage.
- Crypto structure bill Senate vote count sits near 50% 54% · $12K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 54% chance the DeFi crypto market structure bill clears the relevant Senate Yea threshold.
- 38% of all-time volume arrived in 24 hours, the market's heaviest single day of engagement.
- Floor scheduling news or a whip count update on the crypto bill likely drove traders to take fresh positions.
- Resolution tied to the Senate floor vote on the crypto market structure legislation.
- Senate yea votes on crypto bill priced right at the 60-vote line Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 50% above 60 yea votes and only 25% above 62, putting the market-implied vote count right on the cloture knife-edge.
- Final text release with ethics provisions is consistent with last-minute vote-gathering; the market has not broken clearly above the 60-vote threshold.
- The 64% probability above 55 votes versus 50% above 60 shows the market expects votes in the high 50s to low 60s as the modal outcome.
- Polymarket law-by-2026 contract (CM-EVT-ZXN47LV744) at 29% reflects that clearing cloture still leaves House passage and presidential signature as hurdles.
- Senate crypto bill vote count stays shy of 60 Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices only 31% above 50 votes and 22% above 60 votes, implying the market-implied Yea count is well below the 60-vote cloture threshold.
- The news headline itself cites 17% market odds of passage, which aligns with the ladder's distribution showing a sharp drop in probability above the 60-vote strike.
- Revised DeFi oversight provisions added days before the vote introduce fresh uncertainty that could cost votes from both crypto-friendly and skeptical senators.
- Resolution uses the Senate's official recorded vote count from the September 15 procedural roll call.
- Senate Clarity Act vote count priced below 50 yes votes Kalshi ladder
- The Senate vote-count ladder prices the Clarity Act below 50 yea votes: only 39% above 50, 29% above 55, and single digits above 62.
- Despite Bessent's public push and Armstrong's optimism, the market assigns a majority probability to the bill falling short of the 50-vote threshold needed for passage.
- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said senators he has spoken with are on board, but the ladder's sub-50 center of gravity suggests the market views floor dynamics as far less certain than the lobbying narrative implies.
- The Polymarket contract on the Clarity Act being signed into law by 2026 sits at just 16%, consistent with the vote-count ladder's pessimistic read on the path through both chambers and to the White House.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteclarity-26may16 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteclarity-26may16") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CSYS5KPXK6",
"slug": "kxvoteclarity-26may16",
"question": "Senate votes on crypto market structure bill, May 16, 2026",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"legislation",
"vote-count",
"clarity-act",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6555,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 75,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Library of Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Library of Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Congress.gov",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}