Will Todd Blanche receive votes from specific Senators? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]
Will Susan Collins vote for Todd Blanche?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Cassidy | 2026-08-08 | 100.0% | $1.4K | $8.8K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…CAS | ||
| Thom Tillis | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $528 | $28K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…TIL | ||
| John Curtis | 2027-01-01 | 98.0% | $318 | $1.2K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…CUR | ||
| Tommy Tuberville | 2027-01-01 | 97.0% | $139 | $25K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…TUB | ||
| John Thune | 2027-01-01 | 96.0% | $374 | $12K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…THU | ||
| John Cornyn | 2027-01-01 | 95.0% | $231 | $27K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…COR | ||
| Rand Paul | 2027-01-01 | 92.0% | $480 | $15K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…PAU | ||
| Jon Husted | 2027-01-01 | 92.0% | $1 | $2.3K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…HUS | ||
| Lisa Murkowski | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | $2.1K | $9.8K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…MUR | ||
| Susan Collins | 2027-01-01 | 47.0% | $1.7K | $10K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…COL | ||
| Mitch McConnell | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $136 | $1.7K | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…MCC | ||
| John Fetterman | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $143 | $798 | A | KXVOTEBLANCH…FET |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | U.S. Senate | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Thom Tillis votes Yea for Todd Blanche for Attorney General before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Should such a vote result in the rejection of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, or should a withdrawal of the nominee's nomination be formally communicated to the United States Senate, this market shall resolve to No. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the Nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, this market shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the confirmation of the Nominee to the Office be held, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. If the nominee is withdrawn (or intent to nominate a nominee is withdrawn by the President or President-elect), then the market will resolve to No.
The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by Thom Tillis to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or any other official source.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "U.S. Senate" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Bill Cassidy vote for Todd Blanche? | kalshi | 2026-08-08 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Betting piles into Cassidy voting yes on Todd Blanche 99% · $27K 24h
- Kalshi prices Cassidy voting for Todd Blanche at 99%, near-unanimous market conviction.
- 24h volume of $27K is 55% of all-time, meaning more than half of lifetime activity hit in one day.
- The concentrated single-day volume spike suggests a news catalyst, likely a public statement or vote signal.
- Resolves on the recorded Senate confirmation vote.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvoteblanche-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvoteblanche-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvoteblanche-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-J66NJ3ZHH7",
"slug": "kxvoteblanche-27",
"question": "Will Todd Blanche receive votes from specific Senators?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"confirmation-vote",
"todd-blanche",
"2027",
"judicial-nomination"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 142401,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Senate",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "U.S. Senate",
"url": "https://www.rules.senate.gov/rules-of-the-senate",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "senate.gov",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}