Will Nicolás Maduro de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-08 (219D) ]
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 91.0% | — | $13K | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…ROD | ||
| Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end… | 2027-01-08 | 5.0% | — | $221 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…MAC | ||
| Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end… | 2027-01-08 | 2.0% | — | $53 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…LOP | ||
| Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 2.0% | — | $57 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…MAD | ||
| Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of… | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $27 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…CAB | ||
| Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $27 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…ROD | ||
| Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end… | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $27 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…LOP | ||
| Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the… | 2027-01-08 | 1.0% | — | $28 | C | KXVENEZDEFAC…GON |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bloomberg | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds the position of head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
For the purposes of this Contract, "Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela" means that, at the end of 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the individual who primarily exercises the governing authority and core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, regardless of Delcy Rodríguez's formal title, constitutional designation, formal appointment, domestic legal status, foreign recognition, or international recognition.
The Source Agency's determination of whether Delcy Rodríguez de facto holds head of state of Venezuela shall be based on objective indicators of governing authority over the functions attached to head of state of Venezuela, which may include, without limitation:
Control over the executive ministries, administrative apparatus, bureaucracy, and state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela
Issuance of binding national directives, decrees, orders, or instructions that are observably obeyed and enforced within the relevant jurisdiction
Control over the official seat of power, capital, headquarters, principal residence, or principal infrastructure associated with head of state of Venezuela
Treatment by the domestic state institutions associated with head of state of Venezuela as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
Treatment by foreign governments, multilateral institutions, and credentialed media as the operative holder of head of state of Venezuela
The following alone will NOT qualify as de facto holding head of state of Venezuela:
Holding the formal or constitutional title to head of state of Venezuela without exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
Serving in an acting, interim, caretaker, provisional, or temporary capacity that is subordinate to and accountable to a principal who continues to exercise the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
Nomination, designation, election, appointment, or confirmation to head of state of Venezuela prior to the effective transfer of governing authority
Status as successor, heir apparent, or designated replacement to head of state of Venezuela prior to assumption of governing authority
Symbolic, ceremonial, or honorary status without exercise of the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela, except where head of state of Venezuela is itself a primarily ceremonial position and Delcy Rodríguez performs the ceremonial functions associated with head of state of Venezuela without operative displacement
Foreign or international recognition as the holder of head of state of Venezuela without exercise of operative governing authority within the relevant jurisdiction
Leadership from exile, in detention, or otherwise removed from the operating seat of head of state of Venezuela, where another individual is observably exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela without subordination to Delcy Rodríguez
Holding a different role with general political, religious, military, or institutional influence over head of state of Venezuela without personally exercising the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela
If, at the end of 2026, the Source Agency does not identify any individual as exercising primary governing authority over the core powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela (including where head of state of Venezuela has been abolished, suspended, declared vacant, or where governing authority is genuinely fragmented among multiple individuals such that no individual primarily exercises the powers customarily attached to head of state of Venezuela), the Payout Criterion shall not be satisfied with respect to any listed person.
If, at the end of 2026, more than one individual claims or is claimed to de facto hold head of state of Venezuela, the Source Agency shall determine the de facto holder by reference to which individual primarily exercises the indicators of governing authority described above; in any such determination, the higher-ranked Source Agencies shall prevail over lower-ranked Source Agencies. If multiple persons are determined to do so equally, all those persons' markets shall resolve to $1/n, rounded down, where n is the number of persons who do so and who have a strike listed.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bloomberg" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxvenezdefacto-27jan01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxvenezdefacto-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-239X5PK803",
"slug": "kxvenezdefacto-27jan01",
"question": "Will Nicolás Maduro de facto lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"venezuela-politics",
"leadership-succession",
"de-facto-authority",
"2027-resolution",
"maduro-government"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13696,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 42,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": "Bloomberg",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}