CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 16 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 3.2% 2026-06-30 100.0%
$1.7K
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….20
≥ 3.3% 2026-06-30 100.0%
$3 $2.3K
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….30
≥ 3.4% 2026-06-30 100.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….40
≥ 3.5% 2026-06-30 100.0%
$1 $1.2K
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….50
≥ 3.6% 2026-06-30 100.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….60
≥ 3.7% 2026-06-30 100.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….70
≥ 3.8% 2026-06-30 100.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….80
≥ 3.9% 2026-06-30 100.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….90
≥ 4% 2026-06-30 100.0%
$209 $209
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….00
≥ 4.1% 2026-06-30 100.0%
$977 $976
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….10
≥ 4.2% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$68 $68
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….20
≥ 4.3% 2026-06-30 0.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….30
≥ 4.4% 2026-06-30 0.0%
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….40
≥ 4.5% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$6
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….50
≥ 4.6% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$6
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….60
≥ 4.7% 2026-06-30 0.0%
$12
A KXUSTYLD-5Y2….70
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 16 markets · share this text
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (5 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 3.20%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation"
sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.20%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.40%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.50%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.60%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.70%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
NO Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.30%? kalshi 2026-06-30 0%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.30%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.20%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.40%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.50%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.60%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.70%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.80%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 3.90%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
YES Will UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.10%? kalshi 2026-06-30 100%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (16 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxustyld-5y26jun30/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxustyld-5y26jun30
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxustyld-5y26jun30")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5SYG6JWJ7",
  "slug": "kxustyld-5y26jun30",
  "question": "UST Par Yield Curve (5Y) for Q2 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasury-yields",
    "yield-curve",
    "q2-2026",
    "fixed-income",
    "interest-rates"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 16,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 6427,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →