Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%? [ resolves 2026-07-07 (34D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 4% | 2026-07-07 | 97.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….00 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-07-07 | 96.0% | — | $487 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….10 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-07-07 | 96.0% | — | $583 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….20 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-07-07 | 97.0% | — | $661 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….30 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-07-07 | 97.0% | — | $852 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….40 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-07-07 | 94.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….50 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-07-07 | 84.0% | — | $180 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….60 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-07-07 | 99.0% | — | $303 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….70 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-07-07 | 79.0% | — | $468 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….80 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2026-07-07 | 99.0% | — | $34 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….90 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-07-07 | 47.0% | — | $6 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….00 | ||
| ≥ 5.1% | 2026-07-07 | 23.0% | — | $6 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….10 | ||
| ≥ 5.2% | 2026-07-07 | 4.0% | — | $18 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….20 | ||
| ≥ 5.3% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….30 | ||
| ≥ 5.4% | 2026-07-07 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….40 | ||
| ≥ 5.5% | 2026-07-07 | 1.0% | — | $0 | A | KXUSTYLD-30Y….50 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxustyld-30y26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxustyld-30y26jun30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxustyld-30y26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W8J78TQV54",
"slug": "kxustyld-30y26jun30",
"question": "Will UST Par Yield Curve (30Y) for Q2 2026 be above 4.00%?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-treasury-yields",
"yield-curve",
"q2-2026",
"macroeconomic-indicators",
"fixed-income"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5933,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}