2-year US Treasury yield month-end, June 2026 [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 4% | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | — | $2.9K | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….00 | ||
| ≥ 4.05% | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $611 | $1.4K | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….05 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | — | $400 | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….10 | ||
| ≥ 4.15% | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $334 | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….15 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $251 | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….20 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2026-06-30 | 0.0% | — | $116 | A | KXUSTM-26JUN….25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US Department of the Treasury | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If 2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end is above 4.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US Department of the Treasury" sources (1) · single authority
- US Department of the Treasury source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.00%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.05%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| YES | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.10%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
| NO | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.15%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.20%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will 2Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.25%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- 2Y Treasury month-end yield consensus anchors at 4.10-4.15 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 55% above 4.10% and only 13% above 4.15% for month-end 2Y Treasury yield, implying a modal range of 4.10-4.15%.
- A firm dollar into the jobs week is consistent with rates markets pricing the 2Y yield near current levels rather than moving sharply in either direction.
- The June Fed funds upper bound ladder (CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5) at 98% above 3.50% but only 18% above 3.75% anchors the short-rate context for the 2Y yield range.
- Resolves at month-end close today, June 30; the NFP print due imminently is the primary catalyst that could shift the 2Y yield toward or away from the 4.15% tail.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxustm-26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxustm-26jun30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxustm-26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-159R5BWD80",
"slug": "kxustm-26jun30",
"question": "2-year US Treasury yield month-end, June 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-treasury",
"yield-rates",
"economic-indicators",
"fixed-income",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5379,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US Department of the Treasury",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}