Will the 5-year US Treasury Yield reach a specific level by month-end? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | US Department of the Treasury | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "US Department of the Treasury" sources (1) · single authority
- US Department of the Treasury source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.30%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.35%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.40%? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| YES | Will 5Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%? | kalshi | 2026-06-06 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust5-26jun30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust5-26jun30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxust5-26jun30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T9HTBR56H3",
"slug": "kxust5-26jun30",
"question": "Will the 5-year US Treasury Yield reach a specific level by month-end?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-treasury-yields",
"fixed-income-markets",
"economic-indicators",
"interest-rates",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11361,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "US Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "US Department of the Treasury",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "US Department of the Treasury",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}