Will the 2-year US Treasury yield climb by month-end? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]

Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 4.1%	2026-06-06	100.0%	—	$8.7K	A	`KXUST2-26JUN….10`
≥ 4.15%	2026-06-06	100.0%	—	$15K	A	`KXUST2-26JUN….15`
≥ 4.2%	2026-06-23	100.0%	—	$3.0K	A	`KXUST2-26JUN….20`
≥ 4.25%	2026-06-30	0.0%	$7	$388	A	`KXUST2-26JUN….25`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation" ↗

sources (2) · single authority

Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation source of record venue-listed
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.25%?	kalshi	`2026-06-30`	`0%`
YES	Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.20%?	kalshi	`2026-06-23`	`100%`
YES	Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.15%?	kalshi	`2026-06-06`	`100%`
YES	Will 2Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 4.10%?	kalshi	`2026-06-06`	`100%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxust2-26jun30/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxust2-26jun30`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxust2-26jun30")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-H1PKBP19C6",
  "slug": "kxust2-26jun30",
  "question": "Will the 2-year US Treasury yield climb by month-end?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "us-treasury",
    "yield-forecast",
    "fixed-income",
    "2026",
    "economic-indicator"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 27257,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 96,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →