Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 21 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
> 0%	2027-01-01	90.0%	$2	$33K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…BTS`
> 0%	2027-01-01	78.0%	$1	$19K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…GFS`
> 0%	2027-01-01	76.0%	$24	$34K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…GTI`
> 0%	2027-01-01	48.0%	—	$1.9K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…PDW`
> 0%	2027-01-01	48.0%	$10	$2.9K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…TEC`
> 0%	2027-01-01	29.0%	—	$1.0K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…MAC`
> 0%	2027-01-01	22.0%	$153	$18K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…OAI`
> 0%	2027-01-01	22.0%	$8	$20K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…NTH`
> 0%	2027-01-01	22.0%	$30	$31K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…NDU`
> 0%	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$10K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…VDA`
> 0%	2027-01-01	20.0%	$29	$4.9K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…-MU`
> 0%	2027-01-01	20.0%	$4	$5.6K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…ONQ`
> 0%	2027-01-01	14.0%	$0	$7.7K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…LMT`
> 0%	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$9.9K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…LTR`
> 0%	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$1.1K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…TOK`
> 0%	2027-01-01	10.0%	—	$2.4K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…-BA`
> 0%	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$1.9K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…TSM`
> 0%	2027-01-01	9.0%	$1	$690	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…FCX`
> 0%	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$732	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…LLY`
> 0%	2027-01-01	5.0%	$15	$14K	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…SPI`
> 0%	2027-01-01	4.0%	$3	$377	C	`KXUSACOMPANY…PFE`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	The Financial Times	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 21 markets · share this text

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Financial Times"

sources (21)

The Financial Times venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
MSNBC venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Semafor venue-listed
ABC venue-listed
official announcements or filings by <body> or <entity> venue-listed
The Source Agencies are venue-listed
NBC venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
Politico venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
CBS venue-listed
in hierarchical order venue-listed
CNBC venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-07-26T09:57:01+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
GlobalFoundries federal stake prices higher on low-volume desk Kalshi 71% vs Polymarket 78%
- Polymarket prices the claim at 78%, Kalshi at 71%, a 7pp spread.
- Polymarket sits higher with $5,251 cumulative volume; Kalshi lower with $18,066.
- Thin liquidity on both sides inflates the spread; neither market has sufficient depth to force convergence.
- Resolves on any confirmed federal equity stake above 0% in GlobalFoundries before Jan 1, 2027.
2026-07-25T09:43:46+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
US government GlobalFoundries stake trades far apart on the major desks Kalshi 69% vs Polymarket 78%
- Polymarket prices a US federal stake in GlobalFoundries at 78%, Kalshi at 69%, a 9pp gap
- Polymarket is the higher-priced venue but carries less than a third of Kalshi's cumulative volume ($5K vs $17K)
- Kalshi's larger pool may be discounting resolution ambiguity around what constitutes a qualifying stake; Polymarket may be pricing in pending CHIPS Act mechanics
- Claim resolves if any federal entity holds above 0% equity in GlobalFoundries at any point before the horizon

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxusacompanystake-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-TDJHRGQTY1",
  "slug": "kxusacompanystake-27jan01",
  "question": "Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?",
  "category": "companies",
  "tags": [
    "companies",
    "us-government-equity",
    "federal-ownership",
    "corporate-stakes",
    "2027",
    "regulatory-intervention"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 21,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 220604,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 60,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "The Financial Times",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.ft.com",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "The Financial Times",
      "url": "https://www.ft.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official announcements or filings by  or ",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Source Agencies are",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "in hierarchical order",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNBC",
      "url": "https://cnbc.org",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →