Which companies will the US take a stake in this year? [ resolves 2026-09 – 2027-01 ]
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 0% | 2026-09-09 | 100.0% | $139 | $23K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…GFS | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 77.0% | $1.2K | $36K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…GTI | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 77.0% | — | $29K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…BTS | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | $134 | $1.8K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…PDW | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | $10 | $2.4K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…TEC | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 36.0% | — | $1.3K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…MAC | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $7 | $16K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…OAI | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | $5 | $28K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…NDU | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $7.7K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…VDA | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | $114 | $13K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…NTH | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $3.4K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…-MU | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 14.0% | — | $3.9K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…ONQ | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $2.9K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…-BA | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $7 | $8.5K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…LTR | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | $15 | $6.1K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…LMT | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | $9 | $2.2K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…TSM | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $839 | C | KXUSACOMPANY…LLY | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $733 | C | KXUSACOMPANY…TOK | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $546 | C | KXUSACOMPANY…FCX | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 6.0% | — | $569 | C | KXUSACOMPANY…PFE | ||
| > 0% | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | $23 | $15K | C | KXUSACOMPANY…SPI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Financial Times | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of any legal vehicle that primarily owns TikTok US or ByteDance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the threshold at any point satisfies the criterion regardless of subsequent changes. Non-equity instruments like bonds or loans don't qualify. Stakes by sovereign wealth funds or state-owned enterprises attributed to the body count. The value can be expressed as percentage ownership, monetary value, or share count, with percentage being the default unless specified.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Financial Times" sources (21)
The Financial Times venue-listed The Information venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed Semafor venue-listed ABC venue-listed official announcements or filings by <body> or <entity> venue-listed The Source Agencies are venue-listed NBC venue-listed The Washington Post venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Axios venue-listed Fox News venue-listed CNN venue-listed Politico venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed in hierarchical order venue-listed CNBC venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries? | kalshi | 2026-09-09 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- US government GlobalFoundries stake carries a premium on one venue Kalshi 80% vs Polymarket 86%
- Polymarket prices the outcome at 86%, Kalshi at 80%, a 6pp gap
- Polymarket is higher; Kalshi holds the larger cumulative volume, giving its 80% more weight by liquidity
- Polymarket's thinner book may reflect late-breaking deal optimism not yet absorbed by Kalshi's bigger crowd
- Resolves YES if any US federal entity acquires any equity stake above 0% in GlobalFoundries before 2027
- US federal stake in GlobalFoundries carries a premium on one venue Kalshi 84% vs Polymarket 93%
- Polymarket prices 93%, Kalshi 84%, a 9pp spread on an already high-probability claim.
- Kalshi holds the lower price with $28,319 volume; Polymarket higher with $7,535.
- Kalshi's larger, more liquid book pricing lower may reflect stricter read of 'above 0% stake' resolution language.
- Resolves YES if any US federal entity acquires any ownership stake in GlobalFoundries before 2027.
- US government GlobalFoundries stake builds a premium on Polymarket Kalshi 88% vs Polymarket 93%
- Polymarket prices the US government taking a GlobalFoundries stake at 93%; Kalshi at 88%, a 5pp gap.
- Polymarket is higher; Kalshi carries the larger cumulative volume, giving it the deeper liquidity base.
- Polymarket's thinner book may be pricing in a broader definition of 'stake,' including loan or grant instruments.
- Resolves YES if any federal entity acquires above 0% equity or equivalent ownership interest in GlobalFoundries before 2027.
- US government GlobalFoundries stake trades far apart on major desks Kalshi 83% vs Polymarket 89%
- Polymarket prices the outcome at 89%, Kalshi at 83%, a 6pp gap
- Polymarket is higher; Kalshi holds the larger cumulative volume here
- Polymarket's lower liquidity may reflect a more concentrated, conviction-driven book pushing odds up
- Resolves YES if any US federal entity acquires any equity stake above 0% in GlobalFoundries
- U.S. stake in GlobalFoundries stays near 75% but builds higher on one venue Kalshi 80% vs Polymarket 85%
- Polymarket prices U.S. government equity stake in GlobalFoundries at 85%; Kalshi at 80%, a 5pp gap.
- Polymarket is the higher venue; Kalshi volume is $22.5K vs Polymarket's $6.1K, Kalshi has the larger book here.
- With Kalshi holding the deeper book and lower price, Polymarket's thin market may be nudging the odds upward.
- Resolves YES if any U.S. federal entity acquires above 0% equity in GlobalFoundries before 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxusacompanystake-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxusacompanystake-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TDJHRGQTY1",
"slug": "kxusacompanystake-27jan01",
"question": "Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"us-government-equity",
"federal-ownership",
"corporate-stakes",
"2027",
"regulatory-intervention"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 202951,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Financial Times",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.ft.com",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Financial Times",
"url": "https://www.ft.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://www.semafor.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official announcements or filings by or " ,
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Source Agencies are",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "in hierarchical order",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNBC",
"url": "https://cnbc.org",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}