Unemployment rate maximum, before January 2027 [ resolves 2027-01-08 (219D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 5% | 2027-01-08 | 24.2% | $143 | $74K | A | KXU3MAX-27-5 | ||
| ≥ 6% | 2027-01-08 | 8.2% | $2 | $15K | A | KXU3MAX-27-6 | ||
| ≥ 7% | 2027-01-08 | 7.3% | $61 | $6.4K | A | KXU3MAX-27-7 | ||
| ≥ 8% | 2027-01-08 | 6.6% | — | $1.2K | A | KXU3MAX-27-8 | ||
| ≥ 9% | 2027-01-08 | 4.0% | — | $723 | A | KXU3MAX-27-9 | ||
| ≥ 10% | 2027-01-08 | 3.6% | — | $456 | A | KXU3MAX-27-10 | ||
| ≥ 12% | 2027-01-08 | 4.9% | — | $156 | A | KXU3MAX-27-12 | ||
| ≥ 15% | 2027-01-08 | 4.4% | — | $163 | A | KXU3MAX-27-15 | ||
| ≥ 17% | 2027-01-08 | 0.2% | — | $8 | A | KXU3MAX-27-17 | ||
| ≥ 20% | 2027-01-08 | 1.5% | — | $48 | A | KXU3MAX-27-20 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U-3 unemployment rate from 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
- US unemployment above 5% before 2027: Kalshi 27%
- Kalshi ladder prices only 27% chance unemployment exceeds 5.0% before 2027, dropping to 10% above 6.0% and near zero above 7.0%.
- Strong April job openings data is consistent with the ladder's sub-5% implied peak; the market is not pricing a recession-level unemployment spike.
- The ladder's near-zero above 7.0% stands in contrast to the 90% Kalshi odds of more tech layoffs in 2026 versus 2025, suggesting sector-specific stress without macro contagion.
- Resolves via FRED unemployment rate data; ladder settles at the highest monthly unemployment rate recorded before January 1, 2027.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3max-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3max-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3max-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0",
"slug": "kxu3max-27",
"question": "Unemployment rate maximum, before January 2027",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment",
"labor-market",
"economic-indicators",
"us-macro",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 98774,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}