Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.7% | 2027-01-01 | 91.0% | — | $294 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2027-01-01 | 91.0% | — | $766 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2027-01-01 | 89.0% | — | $453 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-01-01 | 89.0% | $1.3K | $2.8K | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2027-01-01 | 75.0% | — | $459 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | — | $418 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | — | $54 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $116 | $655 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | — | $61 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | $0 | $1 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2027-01-01 | 5.0% | — | $1 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2027-01-01 | 7.0% | — | $7 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2027-01-01 | 8.0% | — | $0 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2027-01-01 | 4.0% | — | $0 | A | KXU3-26SEP-T5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- September unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1 percent Kalshi ladder
- The unemployment ladder prices September 2026 U-3 in the 4.0-4.1% range: 83% above 4.0% but only 47% above 4.1%, placing the implied rate right at the fulcrum.
- August payrolls beat sharply at 162,000 jobs added, broadly consistent with the ladder's center near 4.0-4.1%, though the Iran-driven shipping disruption introduces a tail risk not yet priced into near-term labor data.
- A sustained Hormuz closure would raise energy and goods costs, potentially slowing hiring in logistics and manufacturing; the unemployment ladder shows no material upside tail priced above 4.5% at this time.
- A separate ladder puts the Hormuz normalization probability at only 16% by year-end, suggesting the shipping disruption risk to the labor market is a slow-building rather than immediate shock.
- September unemployment rate holds near 4.1 percent in pricing Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder puts September unemployment in the 4.0-4.1% range: 84% above 4.0%, only 45% above 4.1%.
- August unemployment held at 4.1%, and the ladder is consistent with no meaningful deterioration expected in September.
- The 4.5% and higher strikes price at 6-8%, suggesting the market sees little risk of a sharp labor market deterioration.
- The separate peak unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0) puts only 16% odds on unemployment ever exceeding 4.5% before 2027, aligning with the benign September read.
- September unemployment rate seen near 4 percent Kalshi ladder
- Ladder implies September U-3 unemployment in the 4.0-4.1% range: 81% above 4.0% but only 49% above 4.1%.
- Strong August hiring is consistent with unemployment staying anchored near 4.0%, not rising, the ladder reflects that signal.
- The near-coin-flip at the 4.1% strike shows genuine uncertainty about whether jobs strength compresses unemployment below the prior trend.
- A companion ladder (CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0) prices only 16% on unemployment reaching 4.5% before 2027, suggesting the market sees no near-term spike risk.
- September unemployment above 4.1% stays near 50-50 Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts only 50% odds on September U-3 staying above 4.1%, with 83% above 4.0% and just 16% above 4.2%.
- August payrolls beat at 162,000 vs. 56,000 expected; market is consistent with a steady rate, not a drop toward 4.0% or a rise.
- Tail pricing is very tight: only 8% on above 4.3%, suggesting the market sees little risk of unemployment moving decisively in either direction.
- Companion ladder on peak unemployment (CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0) prices 84% odds the rate stays below 4.5% before 2027, consistent with a contained labor market.
- Unemployment rate seen holding near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- The prediction market ladder implies the September U-3 unemployment rate in the 4.1-4.2% range: 68% above 4.1% but only 48% above 4.2%.
- A strong payrolls print backing Warsh is consistent with the market keeping unemployment near 4.1-4.2%, not a material softening.
- The companion ladder on peak unemployment (CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0) prices only 20% above 4.5% before 2027, suggesting markets do not see a near-term spike.
- The tight range between 4.1% and 4.2% as the modal outcome leaves little room for a labor-market deterioration narrative to gain traction.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26sep/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26sep |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26sep") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
"slug": "kxu3-26sep",
"question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment-rate",
"us-labor-market",
"economic-indicator",
"september-2026",
"binary-threshold"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5981,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}