CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026 [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-02 ]

Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in October?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
≥ 4.1% 2026-11-06 0.0%
— $248
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.1
≥ 4.2% 2026-11-06 0.0%
— $480
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.2
≥ 4.3% 2026-11-06 0.0%
— $222
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.3
≥ 3.7% 2027-02-05 92.0%
— $1.2K
A KXU3-26OCT-T3.7
≥ 3.8% 2027-02-05 94.0%
— $685
A KXU3-26OCT-T3.8
≥ 3.9% 2027-02-05 83.0%
— $1.2K
A KXU3-26OCT-T3.9
≥ 4% 2027-02-05 71.0%
— $1.5K
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.0
≥ 4.4% 2027-02-05 33.0%
— $84
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.4
≥ 4.5% 2027-02-05 26.0%
— $34
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.5
≥ 4.6% 2027-02-05 20.0%
— $130
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.6
≥ 4.7% 2027-02-05 12.0%
— $2
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.7
≥ 4.8% 2027-02-05 3.0%
— $15
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.8
≥ 4.9% 2027-02-05 4.0%
— $11
A KXU3-26OCT-T4.9
≥ 5% 2027-02-05 7.0%
— $15
A KXU3-26OCT-T5.0
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Bureau of Labor Statistics link Kalshi Staff Other —
verbatim rules
kalshi 14 markets · share this text
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗
sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
outcome market venue resolved final price
NO Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October? kalshi 2026-11-06 0%
NO Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in October? kalshi 2026-11-06 0%
NO Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in October? kalshi 2026-11-06 0%
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
  • 2026-11-06T05:04:41.000Z momentum-repricing
    October unemployment rate stays near 4.1-4.2 percent, above 4 percent heavily priced Kalshi ladder
    • Ladder prices 94% above 4.0%, 67% above 4.1%, and only 24% above 4.2%, implying the market's central estimate is 4.1-4.2%.
    • News consensus for a modest payroll pickup with stable unemployment is consistent with the ladder's tight clustering just above 4.1%.
    • Sharp drop from 67% at 4.1% to 24% at 4.2% shows the market sees little tail risk of further deterioration above 4.2%.
    • Payrolls ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) and this rate ladder are mutually consistent: a 70K-80K print would leave unemployment near current levels, not trigger a move above 4.2%.
  • 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
    October unemployment rate stays near 4.1 percent in pricing Kalshi ladder
    • Kalshi ladder puts 76% on U-3 above 4.1% and only 24% above 4.2%, implying the market's central case is a print right at 4.1%.
    • The forecast for a slight dip in the unemployment rate is consistent with the ladder's 4.1% modal read, leaving little pricing room for an upside surprise.
    • The 98% probability above 4.0% confirms the market sees sub-4% unemployment as essentially off the table for October.
    • Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; revisions to September data could shift the base and affect the final read.
  • 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z pre-event-pricing
    October unemployment rate stays near 4.1%, below 4.2% heavily favored Kalshi ladder
    • Kalshi ladder implies the October U-3 unemployment rate lands in the 4.1%-4.2% range: 94% above 4.0%, 68% above 4.1%, only 26% above 4.2%.
    • The forecast for an edging-lower unemployment rate is broadly consistent with the Kalshi distribution, which puts the most weight between 4.1% and 4.2%.
    • The tail above 4.3% is priced at just 4%, suggesting the market sees minimal risk of a meaningful labor-market deterioration in October.
    • Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; revisions to September data could shift the reference-month baseline.
  • 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
    October unemployment rate priced near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
    • Kalshi ladder implies October U-3 in the 4.1-4.2% range; 68% chance above 4.1%, falling sharply to 26% above 4.2%.
    • Analyst forecast of an edging-lower rate aligns with the ladder's 92% probability above 4.0%, the market sees near-zero chance of a sub-4.0% print.
    • September stood at 4.2% per Story 6; the ladder's sharp drop above 4.2% signals the market sees little chance of a re-acceleration in unemployment.
    • Resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the same release that settles the payrolls ladder, so both prints arrive simultaneously Friday.
  • 2026-11-02T06:42:02.000Z pre-event-pricing
    October unemployment rate stays near 4.1 percent in market pricing Kalshi ladder
    • Kalshi ladder puts October U-3 in the 4.1-4.2% range: 61% above 4.1%, dropping sharply to 26% above 4.2%.
    • The 99% probability above 3.7% and 90% above 4.0% show the market firmly expects the rate to remain elevated.
    • The sharp cliff between 4.1% and 4.2% indicates strong consensus around a 4.1% print, with limited tail risk above 4.3%.
    • Payrolls ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies soft but positive hiring, internally consistent with a stable unemployment rate near 4.1%.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26oct/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26oct
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26oct")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "question": "Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "unemployment",
    "us-labor-market",
    "economic-indicator",
    "october-2026",
    "macro-economics"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5827,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 100,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →