Unemployment rate U-3, June 2026 [ resolved 2026-07-02 ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-07-02 | 100.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXU3-26JUN-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-07-02 | 100.0% | $136 | $3.8K | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-07-02 | 100.0% | $377 | $5.7K | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | $256 | $3.5K | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | $1 | $604 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | $2 | $160 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | $1 | $18 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | — | $26 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | — | $2 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-07-02 | 0.0% | — | $11 | A | KXU3-26JUN-T4.8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.9% in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
| YES | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 100% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in June? | kalshi | 2026-07-02 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (10 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.9%, 69% above 4.2%, only 37% above 4.3%, implying consensus squarely in the 4.2-4.3% range.
- Volume surged 115x day-over-day on this contract, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention as the JOLTS and ADP prints landed.
- ADP private payrolls came in at 98,000, missing expectations, consistent with the market tilting toward the higher end of the 4.2-4.3% band.
- Resolves via FRED data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the official June U-3 figure settles the contract.
- June unemployment at 4.2-4.3 percent absorbs report print Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder priced 72% above 4.2% and 36% above 4.3% pre-print, with a 4.3% actual result landing squarely in the high-probability band.
- The reported 4.3% unemployment rate is consistent with market pricing that already assigned meaningful odds to the 4.2-4.3% range.
- The companion June NFP ladder (CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8) implies a payroll gain in the 100K-125K range, consistent with a modest labor market that supports a 4.3% unemployment rate.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; large prior payroll revisions cited in the story are a known revision risk that does not affect the U-3 resolution.
- June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies June unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 72% above 4.2% but only 30% above 4.3%; trading volume up 808x day over day.
- Consumer-bruised-by-inflation narrative fits a softening labor market, and the ladder pricing is directionally consistent.
- Companion Kalshi ladder on June nonfarm payrolls implies 100K-125K jobs added; both reads point to a cooling but not collapsing labor market.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics June 2026 jobs report; U-3 is the headline unemployment measure.
- June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies June 2026 unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 63% above 4.2%, 31% above 4.3%, and only 2% above 4.5%.
- Low weekly claims of 215,000 are consistent with the market's base case of contained unemployment, not a breakout toward 4.5% or higher.
- The steep drop from 87% at 4.1% to 31% at 4.3% shows the market treats 4.3% as a credible ceiling given current labor data.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics June employment situation report; the 4.4% and above strikes pricing at 11% and 2% reflect limited tail risk.
- June unemployment above 4.2 percent sits near even odds in distribution Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies the June unemployment rate in the 4.2-4.3% range: 63% above 4.2%, only 31% above 4.3%.
- Falling weekly claims are consistent with the market's modal view near 4.2%, but the low-hire dynamic from the St. Louis Fed research supports the rate staying elevated above 4.0%.
- The tail above 4.4% is priced at only 11%, suggesting the market rules out a significant labor deterioration by June.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics June employment situation report.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26jun/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26jun |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26jun") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
"slug": "kxu3-26jun",
"question": "Unemployment rate U-3, June 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-labor-market",
"unemployment-rate",
"economic-indicator",
"june-2026",
"monthly-employment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15891,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}