Unemployment rate U-3, August 2026 [ resolves 2026-09 – 2026-12 ]
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in August?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 4.1% | 2026-09-04 | 0.0% | — | $844 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.1 | ||
| ≥ 4.2% | 2026-09-04 | 0.0% | $1 | $703 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.2 | ||
| ≥ 4.3% | 2026-09-04 | 0.0% | — | $366 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.3 | ||
| ≥ 3.7% | 2026-12-04 | 95.0% | — | $2 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T3.7 | ||
| ≥ 3.8% | 2026-12-04 | 94.0% | — | $8 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T3.8 | ||
| ≥ 3.9% | 2026-12-04 | 87.0% | $17 | $645 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T3.9 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2026-12-04 | 90.0% | $194 | $2.0K | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.0 | ||
| ≥ 4.4% | 2026-12-04 | 16.0% | $4 | $585 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.4 | ||
| ≥ 4.5% | 2026-12-04 | 11.0% | $3 | $64 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.5 | ||
| ≥ 4.6% | 2026-12-04 | 11.0% | — | $3 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.6 | ||
| ≥ 4.7% | 2026-12-04 | 8.0% | — | $20 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.7 | ||
| ≥ 4.8% | 2026-12-04 | 5.0% | — | $0 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.8 | ||
| ≥ 4.9% | 2026-12-04 | 5.0% | — | $1 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T4.9 | ||
| ≥ 5% | 2026-12-04 | 4.0% | — | $0 | A | KXU3-26AUG-T5.0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report is above 3.7% in August 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August? | kalshi | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August? | kalshi | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August? | kalshi | 2026-09-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- August unemployment odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 57% odds on U-3 above 4.1% and 26% on above 4.2%, implying the market central estimate sits in the 4.1-4.2% band.
- The 85% probability above 3.9% and 57% above 4.1% are consistent with a labor market that is softening at the margin but not breaking down.
- Fortune's 'functionally unemployed' framing aligns with the ladder's fat tail above 4.2% (remaining 26%), suggesting markets are not dismissing a worse read.
- The sharp drop in probability from 85% at 3.9% to 26% at 4.2% shows the Kalshi contract treats a sharp deterioration above 4.2% as an unlikely but non-trivial risk.
- Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies August unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 82% above 4.0%, 53% above 4.1%, but only 24% above 4.2%.
- RBC's 16,000 jobs forecast is consistent with the ladder's expectation of modest deterioration above 4.0%, not a sharp labor market break.
- The market-implied unemployment range sits well below the tail scenario ladder in CM-EVT-RBY62SKLC0, which puts only 17% odds on unemployment reaching 4.5% before 2027.
- Resolves via BLS U-3 unemployment rate release for August 2026; the August employment report is the named catalyst.
- Unemployment rate in August seen most likely near 4.1-4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder places the August unemployment rate most likely in the 4.1-4.2% range: 60% above 4.1%, but only 30% above 4.2%.
- Fed officials' inflation warnings at Jackson Hole are consistent with a still-tight labor market; the ladder's 83% probability above 4.0% signals the market sees unemployment as elevated but not deteriorating sharply.
- The tail probabilities above 4.5% remain in low single digits, suggesting the market does not price a rapid labor market breakdown despite the payroll slowdown narrative.
- Resolution uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics official monthly unemployment rate release for August 2026.
- August unemployment rate priced near 4.0-4.1%, odds split Kalshi ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices August U-3 unemployment at 4.0-4.1%, with 83% above 4.0% but only 49% above 4.1%, a near-even split at 4.1%.
- Trading volume surged 8,876% day-over-day, signaling heavy fresh positioning likely triggered by the consumer confidence miss and labor market data flow this week.
- The consumer confidence dip is consistent with the market pricing unemployment near 4.1%, where deteriorating expectations often precede hiring softness.
- The September unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market prices a gradual one-month step up from current levels.
- August unemployment rate holds near 4.1 to 4.2 percent Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies August U-3 unemployment in the 4.1-4.2% range: 54% above 4.1%, only 23% above 4.2%.
- Claims falling to 206,000 is consistent with the ladder's tight clustering just above 4.1%, signaling no labor-market deterioration.
- The four-week average rising despite the weekly dip is a mechanical artifact; the distribution shows little tail risk above 4.5%.
- Companion Kalshi ladder for September (CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9) implies 4.2-4.3%, suggesting the market sees a gradual drift, not a spike.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26aug/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxu3-26aug |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxu3-26aug") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CN1M891289",
"slug": "kxu3-26aug",
"question": "Unemployment rate U-3, August 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"unemployment-rate",
"us-economics",
"labor-market",
"august-2026",
"macroeconomic-indicator"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 14,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5266,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}