Trump rallies count, January 1 to February 1, 2027 [ resolves 2027-02-01 (243D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by strike

kalshi 6 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
≥ 15	2027-02-01	83.0%	—	$2.3K	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A15`
≥ 20	2027-02-01	73.0%	—	$1.2K	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A20`
≥ 25	2027-02-01	55.0%	—	$769	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A25`
≥ 30	2027-02-01	58.0%	$2	$294	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A30`
≥ 35	2027-02-01	36.0%	—	$176	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A35`
≥ 40	2027-02-01	27.0%	$1	$864	C	`KXTRUMPRALLI…A40`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	the Statistical Review of World Energy	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 6 markets · share this text

If the number of Trump rallies is above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A Trump rally is a public, in-person political event organized around a rally-style address by Donald J. Trump, typically preceded by guest speakers, held at a large venue, and open to attendees via free registration. Examples in 2026 include the rallies on 1/27 (Clive, IA), 2/19 (Rome, GA), 2/27 (Corpus Christi, TX), 3/11 (Hebron, KY), 4/17 (Phoenix, AZ), 5/1 (The Villages, FL), and 5/22 (Suffern, NY). As of 5/27/26, the count is 7.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "the Statistical Review of World Energy"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumprallies-26nov03/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumprallies-26nov03.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumprallies-26nov03")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8CL5HBK172",
  "slug": "kxtrumprallies-26nov03",
  "question": "Trump rallies count, January 1 to February 1, 2027",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-midterms",
    "trump-rallies",
    "political-events",
    "2026",
    "quantitative-metric"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 5651,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 46,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "adversarial_ground_truth"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "the Statistical Review of World Energy",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →