Will Trump pardon specific individuals in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 32 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	28.0%	—	$800	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ROD`
Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	26.0%	$12	$4.7K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…KIR`
Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	24.0%	—	$470	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…CHE`
Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	22.0%	—	$428	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…DAE`
Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	21.0%	—	$152	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HWA`
Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	20.0%	—	$61	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…LEI`
Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	16.0%	—	$13	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HOU`
Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	15.0%	$2	$944	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BAN`
Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$275	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…VER`
Will Kenneth Petty receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	15.0%	—	$991	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…PET`
Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	14.0%	—	$259	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HOL`
Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	13.0%	$9	$230	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ASS`
Will Tal Alexander receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	13.0%	—	$1	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ALE`
Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	12.0%	$10	$4.2K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HAU`
Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	12.0%	$15	$6.0K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAX`
Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$57	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SMI`
Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	12.0%	$9	$1.0K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MSH`
Will Jho Low receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	12.0%	—	$1	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…LOW`
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	11.0%	$9	$3.6K	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SBF`
Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	10.0%	$44	$448	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…KUS`
Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	10.0%	—	$900	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…COM`
Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	9.4%	—	$500	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…HAT`
Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	9.0%	—	$310	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…SNO`
Will Aimee Bock receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	8.3%	—	$8	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BOC`
Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	8.0%	$1	$24	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAL`
Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	7.0%	—	$35	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MEN`
Will Nicolás Maduro receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	6.0%	—	$994	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…MAD`
Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	5.0%	—	$0	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BOR`
Will Braden John Karony receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	5.0%	—	$0	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BJK`
Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	4.0%	—	$253	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…DJT`
Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	3.0%	—	$67	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…ADA`
Will Steve Buyer receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXTRUMPPARDO…BUY`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	New York Times	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 32 markets · share this text

If Donald Trump has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "New York Times"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumppardon-27jan01.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumppardon-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-8LZGL33RL5",
  "slug": "kxtrumppardon-27jan01",
  "question": "Will Trump pardon specific individuals in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-pardons",
    "us-politics",
    "criminal-justice",
    "2027",
    "prediction-market"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 32,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 27733,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 90,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "New York Times",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →