Will Trump say he fired any Cabinet members in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027?
kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 59.0% | $72 | $34K | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-0 | ||
| Will Trump fire 2 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $22 | $3.3K | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-2 | ||
| Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $0 | $2.0K | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-1 | ||
| Will Trump fire 4 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.8% | — | $499 | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-4 | ||
| Will Trump fire 5 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 5.4% | $0 | $321 | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-5 | ||
| Will Trump fire 3 Cabinet members before 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 4.5% | — | $596 | B | KXTRUMPFIRE-27-3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If President Trump has announced that he asked for the resignation of, or fired, exactly 0 non-acting Cabinet members before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
An announcement will be considered to be made by President Trump if it is announced on President Trump's personal or official social media accounts, made by President Trump in a video or audio format, a direct quote from President Trump in written reporting, or otherwise written or released directly from President Trump. The withdrawal of a request for resignation, or the reversal of a decision to fire, does not negate the initial request for resignation or decision to fire for the purposes of this Contract. For the purposes of this Contract, it does not matter if the Cabinet member does not actually resign, is removed, or otherwise leaves the position.
For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. An "acting" member of the Cabinet is not included.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "White House" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpfire-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpfire-27.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpfire-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PLZF299170",
"slug": "kxtrumpfire-27",
"question": "Will Trump say he fired any Cabinet members in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-cabinet",
"us-politics",
"personnel-changes",
"quantitative-prediction",
"2027-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41245,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://whitehouse.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}