Will Trump visit specific countries in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 99.9% | — | $183K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…CHI | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit France before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 90.5% | $43 | $26K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…FRA | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Turkey before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 86.0% | $328 | $47K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…TUR | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 42.0% | $9 | $6.7K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…-SA | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Germany before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 40.0% | $400 | $5.3K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…GER | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 39.0% | $8 | $14K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…ISR | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 38.0% | $6 | $12K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…JAP | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Italy before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 30.0% | $3 | $2.4K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…ITA | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Canada before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $1.5K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…CAN | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 28.0% | — | $2.6K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…AKI | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit India before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 25.0% | $9 | $2.7K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…IND | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Poland before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | $1 | $670 | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…POL | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Qatar before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 20.0% | $8 | $953 | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…QAT | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Cuba before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 18.0% | $20 | $7.0K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…CUB | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 17.0% | $7 | $1.6K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…MEX | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Russia before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…RUS | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Hungary before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | $30 | $1.7K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…HUN | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…-NK | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Venezuela before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $3.3K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…VEN | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Vatican City before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $417 | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…VAT | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Denmark (incl. Greenland) before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | $4 | $994 | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…DEN | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 11.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…UKR | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 7.9% | $2 | $3.0K | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…TAI | ||
| Will Donald Trump visit Palestine (West Bank and Gaza Strip) before Jan 1, 2027 | 2027-01-01 | 6.2% | — | $404 | A | KXTRUMPCOUNT…PAL |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Guardian | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Israel after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Physical presence within the geographic boundaries is required - flying over without landing, airport layovers where the person remains in the airplane or airport, virtual appearances, presence in international waters, or presence solely within embassy/consulate grounds do NOT count as visits. For cities, official municipal boundaries apply. For states/provinces, official boundaries apply. For countries, internationally recognized borders apply. International airports are considered within their host jurisdiction. Evidence must be reported by at least one Source Agency and may include official announcements, news reports with specific location details, verified photographs/videos at identifiable locations, flight records showing arrival, completed official schedules, or social media posts from official accounts. Visits that began before market issuance do not count. For multiple locations with OR logic, visiting any single location satisfies the criterion. For AND logic, all locations must be visited.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Guardian" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpcountries-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpcountries-27jan01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpcountries-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L81T84MFK3",
"slug": "kxtrumpcountries-27jan01",
"question": "Will Trump visit specific countries in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-travel",
"international-diplomacy",
"2026-2027",
"geopolitics",
"presidential-movement"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 327844,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "The Guardian",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}