Will 2026 be Trump's dream year? [ resolves 2027-12-31 (576D) ]
Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026 | 2027-12-31 | 6.6% | $36 | $30K | A | KXTRUMPBULLC…-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If **ALL** of the following occur:
1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND
2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND
3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND
4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026
then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:
- "Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD
- "Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?" uses CONTROL
- "Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?" uses LGDP
- "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?" uses ECONSTAT
For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, quarter-over-quarter percent change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W81X57LB82",
"slug": "kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec",
"question": "Will 2026 be Trump's dream year?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-2026",
"us-politics",
"bull-case-scenario",
"political-narrative",
"performance-assessment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 30091,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}