Will someone leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (168D) ]

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 36 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves Secretary of Labor in	2027-01-07	99.7%	—	$198K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…CHA`
Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in	2027-01-07	99.5%	—	$685K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…GAB`
Pam Bondi leaves Attorney General in	2027-01-07	99.0%	—	$574K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…BON`
Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in	2027-01-07	84.0%	$2.4K	$91K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…BLA`
Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in	2027-01-07	46.0%	$77	$24K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…GLE`
Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in	2027-01-07	34.0%	$2.7K	$390K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…PAT`
Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in	2027-01-07	32.0%	$762	$112K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…LUT`
Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in	2027-01-07	30.0%	—	$14K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…PUL`
Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in	2027-01-07	29.0%	$1	$49K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…WIL`
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in	2027-01-07	26.0%	$18	$58K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…RFK`
Steven Cheung be out as White House Communications Director	2027-01-07	26.0%	—	$333	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…CHE`
Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in	2027-01-07	25.0%	$9	$88K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…LEA`
Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in	2027-01-07	23.0%	—	$9.3K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…WRI`
Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in	2027-01-07	22.0%	$0	$8.0K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…ZEL`
Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in	2027-01-07	22.0%	$1	$5.7K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…WIT`
Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration in	2027-01-07	22.0%	—	$902	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…LOE`
Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in	2027-01-07	21.0%	$43	$176K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…HEG`
John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in	2027-01-07	21.0%	$7	$3.1K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…RAT`
Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in	2027-01-07	20.0%	—	$2.1K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…ROL`
Linda McMahon leaves Secretary of Education in	2027-01-07	19.0%	—	$3.6K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…MCM`
Peter Navarro leaves Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing in	2027-01-07	18.0%	—	$1.3K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…NAV`
Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in	2027-01-07	18.0%	$1	$6.2K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…HOM`
Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in	2027-01-07	18.0%	$36	$3.5K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…DUF`
Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in	2027-01-07	18.0%	$20	$1.4K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…VOU`
Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in	2027-01-07	18.0%	$36	$4.2K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…HUC`
Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in	2027-01-07	18.0%	—	$2.5K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…MOZ`
Brendan Carr leaves Chairman of the FCC in	2027-01-07	18.0%	—	$1.0K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…CAR`
Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in	2027-01-07	17.0%	—	$337	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…SCO`
Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in	2027-01-07	16.0%	$5	$556	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…GRE`
Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in	2027-01-07	14.0%	$57	$14K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…MIL`
Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in	2027-01-07	14.0%	—	$969	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…BUR`
Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in	2027-01-07	13.0%	$116	$17K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…RUB`
Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in	2027-01-07	12.0%	$93	$932	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…COL`
Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in	2027-01-07	11.0%	$43	$7.9K	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…BES`
Scott Turner leaves Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in	2027-01-07	9.5%	—	$840	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…TUR`
JD Vance leaves Vice President of the United States in	2027-01-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`KXTRUMPADMIN…JDV`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	person	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 36 markets · share this text

If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "person"

sources (12) · single authority

person venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
The Washington Post venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
Fox News venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
official government records and registries source of record venue-listed
the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held venue-listed
CNN venue-listed
the New York Times venue-listed
Politico venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
YES	Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?	kalshi	`2026-06-19`	`100%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
  "slug": "kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31",
  "question": "Will someone leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-administration",
    "personnel-turnover",
    "us-politics",
    "cabinet-changes",
    "executive-branch"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 36,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 2556954,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "person",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "official government records and registries",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "person",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official government records and registries",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →