Will a specific Trump administration official leave their role in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (218D) ]
Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 35 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves Secretary of Labor in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 99.7% | — | $198K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…CHA | ||
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 99.2% | $4.3K | $484K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…GAB | ||
| Will Pam Bondi leaves Attorney General in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $574K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…BON | ||
| Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before… | 2027-01-07 | 73.0% | $196 | $17K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…GLE | ||
| Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 64.0% | $160 | $28K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…BLA | ||
| Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 58.0% | $2.0K | $468K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…PAT | ||
| Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 53.0% | $3.8K | $16K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…PUL | ||
| Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 46.0% | $867 | $139K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…LUT | ||
| Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 44.0% | $97 | $13K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…ZEL | ||
| Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | $77 | $44K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…WIL | ||
| Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | $82 | $105K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…LEA | ||
| Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 30.0% | $534 | $199K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…HEG | ||
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 30.0% | $105 | $29K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…RFK | ||
| Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 30.0% | $16 | $11K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…WRI | ||
| Will Stephen Miller leaves Deputy Chief of Staff in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 26.0% | $28 | $20K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…MIL | ||
| Will Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration… | 2027-01-07 | 25.0% | $11 | $787 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…LOE | ||
| Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 24.0% | $12 | $3.9K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…DUF | ||
| Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 24.0% | $195 | $2.8K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…MOZ | ||
| Will Linda McMahon leaves Secretary of Education in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 23.0% | $34 | $3.4K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…MCM | ||
| Will Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 22.0% | $1 | $325 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…SCO | ||
| Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 20.0% | $67 | $12K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…BES | ||
| Will Peter Navarro leaves Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and… | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | $1 | $1.2K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…NAV | ||
| Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | $13 | $5.4K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…HOM | ||
| Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | $4 | $4.4K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…WIT | ||
| Will Scott Turner leaves Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in before… | 2027-01-07 | 19.0% | $1 | $669 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…TUR | ||
| Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $140 | $16K | A | KXTRUMPADMIN…RUB | ||
| Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $19 | $2.2K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…HUC | ||
| Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 18.0% | $1 | $1.1K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…ROL | ||
| Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 17.0% | $1 | $857 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…BUR | ||
| Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 17.0% | $2 | $565 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…COL | ||
| Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 16.0% | $2 | $1.0K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…VOU | ||
| Will Brendan Carr leaves Chairman of the FCC in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 16.0% | $1 | $798 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…CAR | ||
| Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 16.0% | $1 | $1.6K | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…RAT | ||
| Will Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 14.0% | $1 | $421 | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…GRE | ||
| Will JD Vance leaves Vice President of the United States in before 2027 | 2027-01-07 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXTRUMPADMIN…JDV |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Kash Patel leaves as Director of the FBI before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kash Patel must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.
If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No."
For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Z5Z4K6WBZ9",
"slug": "kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31",
"question": "Will a specific Trump administration official leave their role in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-administration",
"personnel-turnover",
"us-politics",
"executive-branch",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 35,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2405816,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}