Atlantic tropical storms, 2026 [ resolves 2026-12-02 (182D) ]
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 10 | 2026-12-02 | 62.0% | — | $654 | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T10 | ||
| ≥ 12 | 2026-12-02 | 55.0% | $1 | $1.2K | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T12 | ||
| ≥ 14 | 2026-12-02 | 37.0% | $20 | $1.6K | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T14 | ||
| ≥ 16 | 2026-12-02 | 27.0% | $8 | $1.9K | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T16 | ||
| ≥ 18 | 2026-12-02 | 15.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T18 | ||
| ≥ 20 | 2026-12-02 | 9.0% | — | $28 | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T20 | ||
| ≥ 25 | 2026-12-02 | 3.0% | — | $6 | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T25 | ||
| ≥ 30 | 2026-12-02 | 8.0% | — | $31 | A | KXTROPSTORM-…T30 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration" No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtropstorm-26dec01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtropstorm-26dec01.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtropstorm-26dec01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-Q08SZJTP95",
"slug": "kxtropstorm-26dec01",
"question": "Atlantic tropical storms, 2026",
"category": "climate",
"tags": [
"climate",
"atlantic-tropical-storms",
"2026-weather",
"seasonal-forecast",
"climate-events",
"quantitative-weather"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6828,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}