Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 2027-01-01 | 35.0% | — | $192 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…UGA | ||
| Lebanon | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…LEB | ||
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2027-01-01 | 19.0% | — | $148 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…DRC | ||
| South Sudan | 2027-01-01 | 15.0% | — | $79 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…SUD | ||
| Russia | 2027-01-01 | 13.0% | — | $355 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…RUS | ||
| Syria | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $938 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…SYR | ||
| Ukraine | 2027-01-01 | 10.0% | — | $590 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…UKR | ||
| Iran | 2027-01-01 | 9.2% | — | $3.0K | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…IRA | ||
| Yemen | 2027-01-01 | 9.1% | — | $264 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…YEM | ||
| Afghanistan | 2027-01-01 | 8.7% | — | $144 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…AFG | ||
| Haiti | 2027-01-01 | 6.6% | — | $115 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…HAI | ||
| Iraq | 2027-01-01 | 6.6% | — | $128 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…IRQ | ||
| Libya | 2027-01-01 | 5.1% | — | $14 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…LIB | ||
| Sudan | 2027-01-01 | 3.9% | — | $6 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…SUD | ||
| North Korea | 2027-01-01 | 3.8% | — | $8 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…KOR | ||
| Burma (Myanmar) | 2027-01-01 | 2.2% | — | $4 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…MYA | ||
| Gaza | 2027-01-01 | 1.2% | — | $4 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…GAZ | ||
| Somalia | 2027-01-01 | 0.8% | — | $61 | A | KXTRAVELDOWN…SOM |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the U | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Afghanistan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2027 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the U" sources (2) · single authority
- the U venue-listed
- the U.S. State Department source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-997XR8ZYY2",
"slug": "kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01",
"question": "Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-foreign-policy",
"travel-advisory",
"geopolitical-risk",
"state-department",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7402,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the U",
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the U.S. State Department",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the U",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the U.S. State Department",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}