Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans | 2026-06-30 | 100.0% | $837 | $22K | A | KXTRANSGENDE…BAN |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Supreme Court | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Supreme Court, in West Virginia v. B.P.J. or Little v. Hecox, rules to uphold state laws restricting transgender athletes in sports, then the market resolves to Yes.
The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has issued a decision in West Virginia v. B.P.J. or Little v. Hecox holding that the Equal Protection Clause or Title IX does not prohibit states from designating sports teams based on biological sex, after Issuance and before January 1, 2027. The market resolves to No if the Supreme Court affirms that such restrictions are unconstitutional or unlawful. If the cases are dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision regarding the validity of such laws before January 1, 2027, the market also resolves to No.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Supreme Court" sources (2) · single authority
- Supreme Court source of record venue-listed
- Supreme Court of the United States from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans? | kalshi | 2026-06-30 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
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CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtransgendersportsban/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtransgendersportsban |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtransgendersportsban") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GF255LWXC3",
"slug": "kxtransgendersportsban",
"question": "Will the Supreme Court uphold transgender sports bans?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"supreme-court",
"transgender-rights",
"sports-policy",
"legal-challenge",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21792,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Supreme Court",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Supreme Court",
"url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Supreme Court of the United States",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}