Will a specific candidate win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? [ resolves 2026-10-26 (145D) ]
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election | 2026-10-26 | 72.0% | — | $5.5K | C | KXTORONTOMAY…CHO | ||
| Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election | 2026-10-26 | 19.0% | — | $428 | C | KXTORONTOMAY…BRA | ||
| Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election | 2026-10-26 | 4.0% | — | $0 | C | KXTORONTOMAY…FUR | ||
| Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election | 2026-10-26 | 3.9% | — | $124 | C | KXTORONTOMAY…TOR |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | uncommitted | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Olivia Chow wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.
The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant electoral authority. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. In cases of competing claims (two presidents, disputed succession), the individual recognized by the hierarchical majority of Source Agencies prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. Repeated postponements count towards the 2-year deadline. If results are annulled by a court/authority AFTER announcement but BEFORE the winner takes office, the Contract remains open until re-run election or expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtorontomayor-26oct26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtorontomayor-26oct26.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtorontomayor-26oct26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-RFPCK8C4V4",
"slug": "kxtorontomayor-26oct26",
"question": "Will a specific candidate win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"toronto-politics",
"canadian-elections",
"municipal-government",
"2026-mayoral-race",
"political-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6056,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}