CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,330 EVENTS / ~30,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year? [ resolves 2027-01-02 (163D) ]

kalshi: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
OpenAI 2027-01-02 37.0%
$121 $39K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…PEN
XAI 2027-01-02 21.0%
$151 $16K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…XAI
Moonshot AI 2027-01-02 21.0%
$152 $722
C KXTOPAI-27-J…OON
Meta 2027-01-02 15.0%
$5 $4.8K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…ETA
Alibaba 2027-01-02 10.0%
$101 $1.2K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…LIB
01A1 2027-01-02 9.0%
$47
C KXTOPAI-27-J…1A1
Nvidia 2027-01-02 8.0%
$12 $2.6K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…VID
Deepseek 2027-01-02 5.0%
$1.0K
C KXTOPAI-27-J…EPP
Baidu 2027-01-02 4.0%
$458
C KXTOPAI-27-J…AID
ByteDance 2027-01-02 4.0%
$57
C KXTOPAI-27-J…YTE
Mistral 2027-01-02 3.0%
$1 $84
C KXTOPAI-27-J…IST
Z.ai 2027-01-02 2.0%
$41
C KXTOPAI-27-J…ZAI
Zhipu AI 2027-01-02 0.0%
C KXTOPAI-27-J…HIP
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff LMSYS link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 13 markets · share this text
If Meta has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "LMSYS"
sources (1) · single authority
  • LMSYS source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtopai-27/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtopai-27
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxtopai-27")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-Y00QJ49L42",
  "slug": "kxtopai-27",
  "question": "Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "ai-model-rankings",
    "tech-companies",
    "artificial-intelligence",
    "2027",
    "competitive-benchmarks"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 13,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 66575,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "LMSYS",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "LMSYS",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "LMSYS",
      "url": "https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →