CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~3,860 EVENTS / ~39,200 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will someone launch a token this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 14 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Arc 2027-01-01 47.0%
$3 $3.3K
C KXTOKENLAUNC…ARC
Exponent 2027-01-01 31.0%
— $1.1K
C KXTOKENLAUNC…XPO
Abstract 2027-01-01 24.0%
— $1.1K
C KXTOKENLAUNC…BST
CME Group 2027-01-01 19.0%
— $353
C KXTOKENLAUNC…CME
Ostium 2027-01-01 16.0%
— $722
C KXTOKENLAUNC…STI
Base 2027-01-01 13.0%
— $774
C KXTOKENLAUNC…ASE
Fomo 2027-01-01 13.0%
— $651
C KXTOKENLAUNC…OMO
MetaMask 2027-01-01 12.0%
— $538
C KXTOKENLAUNC…ETA
OpenSea 2027-01-01 9.0%
— $392
C KXTOKENLAUNC…PEN
Rabby 2027-01-01 9.0%
— $254
C KXTOKENLAUNC…ABB
Unit 2027-01-01 9.0%
— $138
C KXTOKENLAUNC…NIT
Tempo 2027-01-01 8.0%
— $152
C KXTOKENLAUNC…MPO
Felix 2027-01-01 7.0%
— $214
C KXTOKENLAUNC…ELI
Phantom 2027-01-01 4.0%
— $105
C KXTOKENLAUNC…HAN
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff Arbiscan not provided Kalshi Staff Other —
verbatim rules
kalshi 14 markets · share this text
If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Arbiscan"
sources (26)
Arbiscan venue-listed Axios venue-listed Base Explorer venue-listed Binance Chain Explorer venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed Coinbase venue-listed CoinDesk venue-listed CoinGecko venue-listed CoinMarketCap venue-listed CoinTelegraph venue-listed Decrypt venue-listed DeFi Llama venue-listed Etherscan venue-listed Kraken venue-listed major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance venue-listed official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks venue-listed OKX venue-listed Polygonscan venue-listed project venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Solscan venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Block venue-listed The Information venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
recent wire items
  • 2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 21% vs Kalshi 41%
    • Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 41%, Polymarket at 21%, a 20pp gap
    • Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Polymarket carries roughly 28x the cumulative volume
    • Thin Kalshi liquidity may be driving the elevated read; Polymarket's deeper book likely reflects broader informed consensus
    • Contract resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027
  • 2026-09-15T13:07:18+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 41%
    • Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 41%, Polymarket at 27%, a 14pp gap with under four months to resolution.
    • Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries roughly 28x the cumulative volume, giving it a deeper liquidity base.
    • Thin Kalshi volume may reflect a smaller, niche trader pool with different information or higher tolerance for uncertainty; Polymarket's deep book likely prices the claim more efficiently.
    • Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027, a binary, time-boxed event with a clear on-chain or announcement trigger.
  • 2026-09-14T14:42:13+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 18% vs Kalshi 34%
    • Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 34%, Polymarket at 18%, a 16pp gap
    • Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries far deeper liquidity on both sides
    • Thin Kalshi volume may reflect a smaller, less-informed pool pricing in rumor; Polymarket's larger book likely reflects broader crowd conviction against launch
    • Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027
  • 2026-09-13T13:05:28+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 15% vs Kalshi 34%
    • Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 34%, Polymarket at 15%, a 19pp gap
    • Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket carries the deeper book by far
    • Sparse liquidity on Kalshi may reflect a small, conviction-heavy position skewing the price; Polymarket's larger pool likely provides a more tested read
    • Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027
  • 2026-09-12T11:57:23+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
    Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 20% vs Kalshi 34%
    • Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 34%, Polymarket at 20%, a 14pp gap with under three months to resolution.
    • Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries roughly 34x the cumulative volume, giving it the deeper liquidity base.
    • Thin Kalshi volume likely overstates the probability; Polymarket's deeper market may reflect a more informed consensus on Arc's near-term roadmap.
    • Resolves YES if Arc officially launches a token before Jan 1, 2027, a binary, date-bound outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxtokenlaunch-27jan01")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "question": "Will someone launch a token this year?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-tokens",
    "token-launch",
    "2026",
    "corporate-action",
    "web3-adoption"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 9744,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Arbiscan",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Arbiscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Base Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance Chain Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Coinbase",
      "url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinGecko",
      "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinMarketCap",
      "url": "https://coinmarketcap.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinTelegraph",
      "url": "https://bitchat.free/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Decrypt",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "DeFi Llama",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Etherscan",
      "url": "https://counterparty.io/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kraken",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance",
      "url": "http://www.binance.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "OKX",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Polygonscan",
      "url": "https://polygon.technology/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "project",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Solscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Block",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →