Will someone launch a token this year? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 14 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Arc	2027-01-01	39.0%	—	$2.3K	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ARC`
Exponent	2027-01-01	33.0%	—	$1.1K	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…XPO`
Rabby	2027-01-01	23.0%	—	$598	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ABB`
CME Group	2027-01-01	19.0%	—	$353	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…CME`
Felix	2027-01-01	16.0%	—	$476	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ELI`
Ostium	2027-01-01	16.0%	$16	$709	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…STI`
Base	2027-01-01	14.0%	—	$812	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ASE`
Fomo	2027-01-01	14.0%	—	$523	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…OMO`
Abstract	2027-01-01	12.0%	$2	$341	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…BST`
MetaMask	2027-01-01	11.0%	—	$493	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…ETA`
OpenSea	2027-01-01	9.0%	$18	$355	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…PEN`
Unit	2027-01-01	8.0%	—	$110	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…NIT`
Phantom	2027-01-01	6.0%	—	$156	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…HAN`
Tempo	2027-01-01	4.0%	—	$67	C	`KXTOKENLAUNC…MPO`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Arbiscan	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 14 markets · share this text

If OpenSea launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A token launch requires ALL of the following: a fungible token deployed on a blockchain network, officially announced by the project as their token, transferability between wallet addresses, real economic value (not testnet), a liquidity pool with real value, and distribution through public sale, private sale, airdrop, liquidity provision, or exchange listing. This includes ICOs, TGEs, airdrops, fair launches, migrations from testnet to mainnet, token swaps, and governance/utility tokens that become transferable with market value. NOT included: future launch announcements without deployment, non-transferable tokens or points, testnet tokens, fully locked tokens, NFTs, soulbound tokens, internal ecosystem tokens, wrapped tokens of existing assets, unactivated contracts, or points that will convert after the deadline.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Arbiscan"

sources (26)

Arbiscan venue-listed
Axios venue-listed
Base Explorer venue-listed
Binance Chain Explorer venue-listed
Bloomberg News venue-listed
Coinbase venue-listed
CoinDesk venue-listed
CoinGecko venue-listed
CoinMarketCap venue-listed
CoinTelegraph venue-listed
Decrypt venue-listed
DeFi Llama venue-listed
Etherscan venue-listed
Kraken venue-listed
major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance venue-listed
official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks venue-listed
OKX venue-listed
Polygonscan venue-listed
project venue-listed
Reuters venue-listed
Solscan venue-listed
the Associated Press venue-listed
The Block venue-listed
The Information venue-listed
The New York Times venue-listed
The Wall Street Journal venue-listed

recent wire items

2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch before 2027 trades far apart across venues Polymarket 30% vs Kalshi 47%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 47%, Polymarket at 30%, a 17pp gap
- Kalshi sits higher with ~$3K cumulative volume; Polymarket deeper at ~$127K
- Thin Kalshi liquidity likely inflates odds; Polymarket's larger pool may better reflect informed consensus
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027
2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 39% vs Kalshi 60%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 60%, Polymarket at 39%, a 21pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher-side venue; Polymarket carries the deeper liquidity by a wide margin
- Thin volume on Kalshi leaves its price vulnerable to a handful of trades; Polymarket's larger pool likely reflects broader informed consensus
- Resolution hinges on a publicly verifiable Arc token launch announcement before Jan 1, 2027
2026-07-29T10:36:27+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token-launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 37% vs Kalshi 60%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 60%, Polymarket at 37%, a 23pp gap.
- Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries the deeper book with cumulative volume roughly 26x larger.
- Thin Kalshi liquidity may let a small number of trades push odds well above the better-informed Polymarket consensus.
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027; no launch = NO.
2026-07-28T10:31:37+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 48% vs Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 64%, Polymarket at 48%, a 16pp gap
- Kalshi sits higher with thin liquidity; Polymarket holds lower on a much deeper book
- Thin Kalshi volume leaves odds vulnerable to noise; Polymarket's deeper market likely reflects broader informed consensus
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027
2026-07-24T10:14:49+00:00 cross-venue-divergence
Arc token launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 40% vs Kalshi 60%
- Kalshi prices Arc token launch at 60%, Polymarket at 40%, a 20pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher venue; liquidity thin at $3,501 vs Polymarket's $89,188
- Shallow Kalshi volume likely reflects a small, bullish base with little opposing flow; Polymarket's deeper book is more price-discovered
- Resolves YES if Arc publicly launches a token before Jan 1, 2027

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtokenlaunch-27jan01`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtokenlaunch-27jan01")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K7DR5FCFM0",
  "slug": "kxtokenlaunch-27jan01",
  "question": "Will someone launch a token this year?",
  "category": "crypto",
  "tags": [
    "crypto",
    "crypto-tokens",
    "token-launch",
    "2026",
    "corporate-action",
    "web3-adoption"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 14,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 8369,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 52,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "Arbiscan",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://kalshi.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "Arbiscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Base Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Binance Chain Explorer",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Coinbase",
      "url": "https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinDesk",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinGecko",
      "url": "https://www.coingecko.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinMarketCap",
      "url": "https://coinmarketcap.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CoinTelegraph",
      "url": "https://bitchat.free/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Decrypt",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "DeFi Llama",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Etherscan",
      "url": "https://counterparty.io/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Kraken",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance",
      "url": "http://www.binance.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "OKX",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Polygonscan",
      "url": "https://polygon.technology/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "project",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Solscan",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Block",
      "url": "https://kalshi.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →