Will the top coding AI be determined by the end of this week? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
kalshi: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $2 | $7.7K | C | KXTECHRANKLI…LAU | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…WEN | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $106 | $406 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…HAT | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $4 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…ROK | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $9 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…OLA | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | — | C | KXTECHRANKLI…GLM | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…IMI | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $20 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…EMI | ||
| Top Coding AI this week | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | — | $2 | C | KXTECHRANKLI…INI |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | ABC | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jun 13, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
If two models are tied under Rank, then the model with the highest Arena Score will resolve to Yes. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will resolve to Yes. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will resolve to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "ABC" sources (17)
- ABC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- organization that publishes list venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Washington Post venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 100% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Top Coding AI this week? | kalshi | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtechranklistaicode-26jun13/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtechranklistaicode-26jun13 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtechranklistaicode-26jun13") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-618D5BWSG7",
"slug": "kxtechranklistaicode-26jun13",
"question": "Will the top coding AI be determined by the end of this week?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai-coding",
"weekly-ranking",
"technology-competition",
"2026",
"llm-performance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 8184,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_none"
],
"resolution_source": "ABC",
"resolution_source_url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"source_status": "no_source_stated",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "organization that publishes list",
"url": "https://kalshi.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}