Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot

kalshi 5 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of…	2026-05-08	0.1%	—	$195	C	`KXTARIFFCHEC…MAY`
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of…	2026-06-08	0.2%	—	$215	C	`KXTARIFFCHEC…JUN`
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of…	2026-07-08	0.3%	—	$759	C	`KXTARIFFCHEC…JUL`
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of…	2026-08-08	0.1%	—	$1.2K	C	`KXTARIFFCHEC…AUG`
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of…	2027-01-08	6.2%	$244	$69K	C	`KXTARIFFCHEC…-27`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	The Washington Post	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 5 markets · share this text

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party. For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post"

sources (22)

The Washington Post venue-listed Fox News venue-listed The Wall Street Journal venue-listed The Guardian venue-listed ABC venue-listed Bloomberg News venue-listed CBS venue-listed South China Morning Post venue-listed NBC venue-listed the Associated Press venue-listed The Verge venue-listed BBC venue-listed Axios venue-listed CNN venue-listed ABC News Australia venue-listed The Information venue-listed Semafor venue-listed MSNBC venue-listed CBC venue-listed Reuters venue-listed Politico venue-listed The New York Times venue-listed

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?	kalshi	`by 2026-08-08`	`0%`
NO	Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?	kalshi	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?	kalshi	`2026-06-01`	`0%`

Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

2026-09-10T00:00:00.000Z momentum-repricing
Tariff stimulus checks for Americans stay a long shot Kalshi 4%
- Kalshi puts only 4% on Americans receiving tariff stimulus checks, a near-zero probability despite Trump's public $5,000 pledge.
- The Obamacare rebate checks are a targeted administrative action, while the $5,000 midterm pledge is an unfunded campaign promise; the market is treating the broader direct-payment narrative as rhetoric.
- At 4%, Kalshi is effectively pricing the tariff-rebate mechanism as legally or politically non-viable, consistent with news reports questioning the funding mechanism and legality.
- Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post; settlement would require confirmed distribution of tariff-sourced direct payments to Americans, a bar distinct from existing benefit program disbursements.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtariffchecks-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtariffchecks-26`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxtariffchecks-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-LPQG3Y7ZN4",
  "slug": "kxtariffchecks-26",
  "question": "Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "us-tariffs",
    "stimulus-checks",
    "trump-administration",
    "2026",
    "fiscal-policy"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 5,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 71746,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 43,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
    "commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
  ],
  "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
  "source_status": "no_committed_source",
  "source_of_record": null,
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "The Washington Post",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Fox News",
      "url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Wall Street Journal",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Guardian",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC",
      "url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Bloomberg News",
      "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBS",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "South China Morning Post",
      "url": "https://www.scmp.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "NBC",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "the Associated Press",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Verge",
      "url": "https://www.theverge.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "BBC",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Axios",
      "url": "https://www.axios.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CNN",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "ABC News Australia",
      "url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The Information",
      "url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Semafor",
      "url": "https://semafor.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "MSNBC",
      "url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "CBC",
      "url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Politico",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "The New York Times",
      "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →