Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks? [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?
kalshi: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of… | 2026-05-08 | 0.1% | — | $195 | C | KXTARIFFCHEC…MAY | ||
| Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of… | 2026-06-08 | 0.2% | — | $215 | C | KXTARIFFCHEC…JUN | ||
| Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of… | 2026-07-08 | 0.3% | — | $759 | C | KXTARIFFCHEC…JUL | ||
| Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of… | 2026-08-08 | 0.2% | $5 | $2.0K | C | KXTARIFFCHEC…AUG | ||
| Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of… | 2027-01-08 | 7.4% | $178 | $79K | C | KXTARIFFCHEC…-27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | The Washington Post | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Clarification (12/18/25): For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party. For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "The Washington Post" sources (22)
- The Washington Post venue-listed
- Fox News venue-listed
- The Wall Street Journal venue-listed
- The Guardian venue-listed
- ABC venue-listed
- Bloomberg News venue-listed
- CBS venue-listed
- South China Morning Post venue-listed
- NBC venue-listed
- the Associated Press venue-listed
- The Verge venue-listed
- BBC venue-listed
- Axios venue-listed
- CNN venue-listed
- ABC News Australia venue-listed
- The Information venue-listed
- Semafor venue-listed
- MSNBC venue-listed
- CBC venue-listed
- Reuters venue-listed
- Politico venue-listed
- The New York Times venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? | kalshi | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtariffchecks-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxtariffchecks-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxtariffchecks-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LPQG3Y7ZN4",
"slug": "kxtariffchecks-26",
"question": "Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-tariffs",
"stimulus-checks",
"trump-administration",
"2026",
"fiscal-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 82644,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 43,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "The Washington Post",
"url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": "https://www.foxnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Wall Street Journal",
"url": "https://www.wsj.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Guardian",
"url": "https://www.theguardian.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC",
"url": "https://abcnews.go.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg News",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBS",
"url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "South China Morning Post",
"url": "https://www.scmp.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the Associated Press",
"url": "https://apnews.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Verge",
"url": "https://www.theverge.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "BBC",
"url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Axios",
"url": "https://www.axios.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CNN",
"url": "https://www.cnn.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "ABC News Australia",
"url": "http://www.abc.net.au/news/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The Information",
"url": "https://www.theinformation.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Semafor",
"url": "https://semafor.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "MSNBC",
"url": "https://www.msnbc.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "CBC",
"url": "https://www.cbc.ca/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Reuters",
"url": "https://www.reuters.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Politico",
"url": "https://www.politico.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "The New York Times",
"url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}