Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average by 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Metropolitan Transportation Authority | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 3.72 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
The subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Metropolitan Transportation Authority" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Metropolitan Transportation Authority source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will NYC subway ridership reach 85% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 97% |
| YES | Will NYC subway ridership reach 80% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? | kalshi | 2026-05-20 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxsubway-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxsubway-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxsubway-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6B62XT92K5",
"slug": "kxsubway-27",
"question": "Will NYC subway ridership reach its pre-Covid average by 2027?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"nyc-transit",
"ridership-recovery",
"urban-mobility",
"post-pandemic-metrics",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7318,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
"resolution_source_url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Metropolitan Transportation Authority",
"url": "https://new.mta.info/coronavirus/ridership",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}