Will Trump embargo a new country by August 2026? [ resolves 2026-08 – 2027-01 ]
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Jan 1, 2027?
kalshi: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | the White House | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action imposing a comprehensive trade embargo on a new foreign country before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "the White House" sources (3) · single authority
- the White House source of record venue-listed
- Federal Register venue-listed
- the President of the United States venue-listed
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxstoptrade/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxstoptrade |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxstoptrade") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-T49K04CLR1",
"slug": "kxstoptrade",
"question": "Will Trump embargo a new country by August 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump-trade-policy",
"embargo-sanctions",
"executive-action",
"us-foreign-relations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5214,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "the White House",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "the White House",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the White House",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Register",
"url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the President of the United States",
"url": "https://www.whitehouse.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}