Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-09 ]
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, | 2026-07-07 | 1.0% | — | $203 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…N30 | ||
| Jul 16, | 2026-07-23 | 1.0% | — | $2.4K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L16 | ||
| Jul 23, | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $647 | $1.0K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L23 | ||
| Jul 17, | 2026-07-24 | 4.0% | — | $396 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L17 | ||
| Jul 24, | 2026-07-25 | 100.0% | $43 | $70 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L24 | ||
| Jul 18, | 2026-07-25 | 1.0% | — | $12 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L18 | ||
| Jul 19, | 2026-07-26 | 1.0% | — | $26 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L19 | ||
| Jul 20, | 2026-07-27 | 1.0% | — | $498 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L20 | ||
| Jul 25, | 2026-08-01 | 0.0% | — | — | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L25 | ||
| Jul 31, | 2026-08-07 | 92.0% | $2.8K | $132K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L31 | ||
| Aug 16, | 2026-08-23 | 96.0% | $111 | $22K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…G16 | ||
| Aug 31, | 2026-09-07 | 97.0% | $1.7K | $11K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…G31 | ||
| Sep 16, | 2026-09-23 | 98.0% | $221 | $5.9K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…P16 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | FAA | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before July 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "FAA" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- FAA source of record venue-listed
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 24, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-25 | 100% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 23, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-24 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 20, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-21 | 1% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 19, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-20 | 1% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 18, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-19 | 1% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 17, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-18 | 4% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-17 | 1% |
| NO | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-01 | 1% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexstarship-13/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexstarship-13 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexstarship-13") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W5B4GMY413",
"slug": "kxspacexstarship-13",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"starship",
"space-exploration",
"launch-schedule",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 174808,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "FAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/updates-grounding-boeing-737-max-9-aircraft",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "FAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "FAA",
"url": "https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/updates-grounding-boeing-737-max-9-aircraft",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}