CM ClearMarket
SYSTEM: LIVE · PRICES: HOURLY REFRESH · COVERAGE: ~2,000 EVENTS / ~16,000 MARKETS · KALSHI + POLYMARKET

Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (89D) ]

Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
kalshi 6 markets
market resolves P(YES) vol (24h) vol (cum) RCG venue id
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026 2026-08-31 83.0%
$416 $1.5K
A KXSPACEXSTAR…G31
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026 2026-08-31 83.0%
$62 $1.5K
A KXSPACEXSTAR…P16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026 2026-08-31 74.0%
$77 $2.0K
A KXSPACEXSTAR…G16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026 2026-08-31 53.0%
$1.1K $3.8K
A KXSPACEXSTAR…L31
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026 2026-08-31 21.0%
$51 $2.1K
A KXSPACEXSTAR…L16
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026 2026-08-31 4.0%
$0 $421
A KXSPACEXSTAR…N30
resolution architecture
venue proposer source citation arbitration class analyst notes
kalshi Exchange Staff faa.gov link Kalshi Staff Other
verbatim rules
kalshi 6 markets · share this text
If SpaceX launches Starship flight test number 13 before July 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "faa.gov"
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTMLbrowsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset)https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexstarship-13/
JSONREST API for developershttps://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexstarship-13.json
MCPagentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexstarship-13")
AGENTAI crawler discovery index/llms.txt

Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.

raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
{
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-W5B4GMY413",
  "slug": "kxspacexstarship-13",
  "question": "Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship by December 31, 2025?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "spacex",
    "starship",
    "launch",
    "2026",
    "space-exploration"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 6,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 11347,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 86,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "faa.gov",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/updates-grounding-boeing-737-max-9-aircraft",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}
snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →