Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship by December 31, 2025? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (89D) ]
Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026?
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 83.0% | $416 | $1.5K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…G31 | ||
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 83.0% | $62 | $1.5K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…P16 | ||
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 74.0% | $77 | $2.0K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…G16 | ||
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 53.0% | $1.1K | $3.8K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L31 | ||
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 21.0% | $51 | $2.1K | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…L16 | ||
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026 | 2026-08-31 | 4.0% | $0 | $421 | A | KXSPACEXSTAR…N30 |
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | faa.gov | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
kalshi.settlement_sources → "faa.gov" ↗ No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxspacexstarship-13/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxspacexstarship-13.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxspacexstarship-13") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-W5B4GMY413",
"slug": "kxspacexstarship-13",
"question": "Will SpaceX conduct the 13th launch of Starship by December 31, 2025?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"spacex",
"starship",
"launch",
"2026",
"space-exploration"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11347,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 86,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "faa.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.faa.gov/newsroom/updates-grounding-boeing-737-max-9-aircraft",
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}